Football · Malta Premier League · 02/09, 21:00

Prediction: Floriana vs Gzira United

Team pages: Floriana · Gzira United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Floriana1.51

Gzira United0.91

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Floriana Draw Gzira United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Floriana 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWWD

Gzira United 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Floriana 4–2–0 Gzira United (6 last)

Gzira United0-1Floriana
Gzira United1-2Floriana
Floriana1-1Gzira United
Gzira United0-3Floriana
Floriana2-1Gzira United
Floriana2-2Gzira United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Floriana 1573 · Gzira United 1428

	Floriana	Draw	Gzira United
Our model	50%	28%	22%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Floriana (rating 1573 vs 1428).
H2H favours Floriana: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Floriana	Gzira United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.89 ★
X	3.80 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	5.50 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:23 +5’	1.50	3.80	5.50
12:47 +4’	1.55▲	3.80	5.00▼
14:29 +6’	1.75▲	3.60▼	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:36 +1’	1.47	4.02	5.74
09:08 +1’	1.57▲	3.71▼	4.98▼
14:35	1.89▲	3.17▼	3.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Floriana 4–2–0 Gzira United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	0-1 HT 0-1	Floriana
08/02/26 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	1-2 HT 1-0	Floriana
12/09/25 Malta Premier League	Floriana	1-1 HT 1-1	Gzira United
08/03/25 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	0-3 HT 0-2	Floriana
27/09/24 Malta Premier League	Floriana	2-1 HT 2-1	Gzira United
07/05/24 Malta FA Trophy	Floriana	2-2 HT 1-2	Gzira United

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mosta FC	3	3	0	0	5	1	9
2	Floriana	3	2	1	0	6	1	7
3	Marsaxlokk FC	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
4	Valletta	3	2	0	1	8	4	6
5	Birkirkara	3	2	0	1	5	1	6
6	Hibernians	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
7	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
8	Balzan FC	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
9	Sliema Wanderers	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
10	Hamrun Spartans	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
11	Birzebbuga	3	0	0	3	1	6	0
12	Gzira United	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Floriana	Gzira United
Hamrun Spartans	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sliema Wanderers	2-0 W	1-2 L
Marsaxlokk FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Valletta	0-0 D	0-3 L
Naxxar Lions	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Floriana (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Floriana

WWWLWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
21/08	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
14/08	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
16/05	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
09/05	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
30/04	Gzira United Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
25/04	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-1	1-4	2	6	L
18/04	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	2-0	9	8	W
15/04	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
11/04	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	5	W

Gzira United

WLLWLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
17/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
30/04	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
26/04	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
19/04	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	0	5	L
15/04	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/04	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
14/03	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	0-2	1-2	3	8	L
07/03	Hibernians Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Floriana vs Gzira United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Floriana win (51%). Probabilities: Floriana 51%, draw 27%, Gzira United 22%.

How many goals are expected in Floriana vs Gzira United?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Floriana 1.51 · Gzira United 0.91), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Floriana vs Gzira United?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.