Football · Malta Premier League · 06/09, 18:00

Prediction: Sliema Wanderers vs Birkirkara

Team pages: Sliema Wanderers · Birkirkara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Sliema Wanderers1.27

Birkirkara1.24

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Sliema Wanderers Draw Birkirkara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sliema Wanderers 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDLLLW

Birkirkara 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDDWWL

Head-to-head

Sliema Wanderers 4–2–0 Birkirkara (6 last)

Birkirkara2-3Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers1-0Birkirkara
Birkirkara1-1Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers2-1Birkirkara
Birkirkara2-3Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers2-2Birkirkara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sliema Wanderers 1514 · Birkirkara 1485

	Sliema Wanderers	Draw	Birkirkara
Our model	36%	30%	35%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sliema Wanderers: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sliema Wanderers	Birkirkara
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:07 +15’	2.45	3.10	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sliema Wanderers 4–2–0 Birkirkara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Birkirkara	2-3 HT 1-1	Sliema Wanderers
14/04/26 Malta Premier League	Sliema Wanderers	1-0 HT 0-0	Birkirkara
17/02/26 Malta Premier League	Birkirkara	1-1 HT 1-0	Sliema Wanderers
23/11/25 Malta Premier League	Sliema Wanderers	2-1 HT 0-1	Birkirkara
05/11/25 Malta Jubilee Cup	Birkirkara	2-3 HT 0-3	Sliema Wanderers
16/09/25 Malta Premier League	Sliema Wanderers	2-2 HT 2-1	Birkirkara

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Floriana	4	3	1	0	10	2	10
2	Valletta	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
3	Mosta FC	3	3	0	0	5	1	9
4	Marsaxlokk FC	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Birkirkara	3	2	0	1	5	1	6
6	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
7	Hibernians	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
8	Balzan FC	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
9	Sliema Wanderers	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
10	Hamrun Spartans	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
11	Birzebbuga	3	0	0	3	1	6	0
12	Gzira United	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sliema Wanderers	Birkirkara
Floriana	0-2 L	2-2 D
Hibernians	0-2 L	0-0 D
Tarxien Rainbows FC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	1-1 D	1-0 W
Mosta FC	2-2 D	0-1 L
Gzira United	2-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Birkirkara (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sliema Wanderers

LWDWDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
21/08	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Hibernians Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
30/04	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
26/04	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	7	D
19/04	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
14/04	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
10/04	Hibernians Malta Premier League	1-1	1-1	10	4	D
14/03	Gzira United Malta Premier League	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
07/03	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Birkirkara

LDWLDDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
22/08	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/08	Gzira United Malta Premier League	2-0	4-0	6	6	W
30/04	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	0	D
24/04	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
18/04	Hibernians Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
14/04	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
11/04	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
14/03	Floriana Malta Premier League	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
08/03	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sliema Wanderers vs Birkirkara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sliema Wanderers win (36%). Probabilities: Sliema Wanderers 36%, draw 29%, Birkirkara 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sliema Wanderers vs Birkirkara?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Sliema Wanderers 1.27 · Birkirkara 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sliema Wanderers vs Birkirkara?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.