Football · Malta Premier League · 05/09, 20:30

Prediction: Marsaxlokk FC vs Mosta FC

Team pages: Marsaxlokk FC · Mosta FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Marsaxlokk FC1.62

Mosta FC0.92

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Marsaxlokk FC Draw Mosta FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Marsaxlokk FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLDWW

Mosta FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDLDWWWW

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk FC 3–3 Mosta FC (6 last)

Mosta FC1-2Marsaxlokk FC
Marsaxlokk FC3-1Mosta FC
Mosta FC0-4Marsaxlokk FC
Mosta FC2-1Marsaxlokk FC
Marsaxlokk FC0-3Mosta FC
Marsaxlokk FC2-4Mosta FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marsaxlokk FC 1505 · Mosta FC 1513

	Marsaxlokk FC	Draw	Mosta FC
Our model	53%	27%	20%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marsaxlokk FC	Mosta FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	80/0/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	1.8 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.75

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.65▼	Pinn 1.66
X	3.40 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	3.60 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.49 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:51 +6’	1.83	3.40	3.60
09:54 +6’	1.65▼	3.75▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:54	1.81	3.31	3.95
10:00	1.66▼	3.56▲	4.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marsaxlokk FC 3–0–3 Mosta FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Malta Premier League	Mosta FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Marsaxlokk FC
17/08/25 Malta Premier League	Marsaxlokk FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Mosta FC
04/04/25 Malta Premier League	Mosta FC	0-4 HT 0-2	Marsaxlokk FC
14/02/25 Malta Premier League	Mosta FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Marsaxlokk FC
11/01/25 Malta FA Trophy	Marsaxlokk FC	0-3 HT 0-1	Mosta FC
23/09/24 Malta Premier League	Marsaxlokk FC	2-4 HT 2-1	Mosta FC

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Floriana	4	3	1	0	10	2	10
2	Valletta	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
3	Mosta FC	3	3	0	0	5	1	9
4	Marsaxlokk FC	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Birkirkara	3	2	0	1	5	1	6
6	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
7	Hibernians	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
8	Balzan FC	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
9	Sliema Wanderers	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
10	Hamrun Spartans	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
11	Birzebbuga	3	0	0	3	1	6	0
12	Gzira United	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marsaxlokk FC	Mosta FC
Hibernians	1-0 W	0-2 L
Balzan FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Hamrun Spartans	1-1 D	2-0 W
Naxxar Lions	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mosta FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marsaxlokk FC

WLWWWDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Valletta Malta Premier League	2-0	2-1	6	6	W
21/08	Hibernians Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
14/08	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	11	3	D
16/05	Floriana Malta Premier League	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
09/05	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
02/05	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	2-1	3-2	4	0	W
26/04	Valletta Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
19/04	Gzira United Malta Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
15/04	Floriana Malta Premier League	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
11/04	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	2-1	3-2	6	6	W

Mosta FC

WDWDLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
23/08	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
17/08	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
10/05	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
30/04	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-1	1-1	0	0	D
24/04	Hibernians Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
19/04	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/04	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
11/04	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League	2-1	2-2	6	8	D
15/03	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-0	2-1	1	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marsaxlokk FC vs Mosta FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marsaxlokk FC win (54%). Probabilities: Marsaxlokk FC 54%, draw 25%, Mosta FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Marsaxlokk FC vs Mosta FC?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Marsaxlokk FC 1.62 · Mosta FC 0.92), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Marsaxlokk FC vs Mosta FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.