Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 3 · 22/07, 11:30
Prediction: Newmarket vs North Lakes United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.42Total
Newmarket3.12
North Lakes United1.3
1X2
Newmarket
Draw
North Lakes United
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Newmarket
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
North Lakes United
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newmarket 1617 · North Lakes United 1446
| Newmarket | Draw | North Lakes United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| Market | 73% | 14% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.42 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newmarket (rating 1617 vs 1446).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newmarket | North Lakes United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.4 / 1 | 1.5 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6 | 0.5 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.6 | 2.5 / 0 |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moggill | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 56 | 27 | 42 |
| 2 | Newmarket | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 64 | 24 | 39 |
| 3 | Yeronga Eagles FC | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 62 | 29 | 38 |
| 4 | AC Carina | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 26 | 33 |
| 5 | Springfield United | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 38 | 32 |
| 6 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 44 | 25 |
| 7 | Ipswich Knights | 21 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 32 | 53 | 24 |
| 8 | North Lakes United | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 41 | 21 |
| 9 | North Brisbane FC | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 60 | 21 |
| 10 | University of Queensland | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 40 | 47 | 19 |
| 11 | Logan Roos FC | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 49 | 19 |
| 12 | North Pine | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 38 | 18 |
| 13 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 19 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 68 | 16 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newmarket | North Lakes United |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Knights | 9-0 W | 1-2 L |
| North Brisbane FC | 5-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Springfield United | 2-2 D | 5-1 W |
| University of Queensland | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | 6-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Moggill | 7-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Yeronga Eagles FC | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Newmarket (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newmarket
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-0 | 9-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
North Lakes United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/07 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 27/06 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-3 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/06 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 05/06 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newmarket vs North Lakes United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newmarket win (73%). Probabilities: Newmarket 73%, draw 14%, North Lakes United 13%.
How many goals are expected in Newmarket vs North Lakes United?
The model expects 4.42 goals (Newmarket 3.12 · North Lakes United 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Newmarket vs North Lakes United?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.