Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 3 · 29/07, 12:30
Prediction: AC Carina vs University of Queensland
Team pages: AC Carina · University of Queensland
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.69Total
AC Carina3.34
University of Queensland1.34
1X2
AC Carina
Draw
University of Queensland
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
AC Carina
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
University of Queensland
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AC Carina
3–2
University of Queensland
(5 last)
- University of Queensland2-6AC Carina
- AC Carina1-2University of Queensland
- AC Carina4-1University of Queensland
- AC Carina3-2University of Queensland
- University of Queensland5-0AC Carina
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AC Carina 1554 · University of Queensland 1409
| AC Carina | Draw | University of Queensland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 85% | 9% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.69 goals · Bet365 line 4.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Carina (rating 1554 vs 1409).
- H2H favours AC Carina: 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AC Carina | University of Queensland | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.6 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 22/56/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.9 | 0.7 / 2.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Carina 3–0–2 University of Queensland
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | University of Queensland | 2-6 HT 2-3 | AC Carina |
| 27/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | AC Carina | 1-2 HT 0-0 | University of Queensland |
| 21/03/23 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | AC Carina | 4-1 HT 1-1 | University of Queensland |
| 22/08/20 Australia Brisbane Capital League 1 | AC Carina | 3-2 HT 1-1 | University of Queensland |
| 02/08/18 Australia Brisbane Canale Cup | University of Queensland | 5-0 HT 3-0 | AC Carina |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newmarket | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 79 | 24 | 45 |
| 2 | Moggill | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 28 | 43 |
| 3 | Yeronga FC | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 62 | 30 | 38 |
| 4 | AC Carina | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 27 | 36 |
| 5 | Springfield United | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 44 | 39 | 33 |
| 6 | Ipswich Knights | 22 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 53 | 27 |
| 7 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 45 | 26 |
| 8 | Logan Roos FC | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 58 | 22 |
| 9 | North Brisbane FC | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 61 | 22 |
| 10 | North Lakes United | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 56 | 21 |
| 11 | University of Queensland | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 52 | 19 |
| 12 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 70 | 19 |
| 13 | North Pine | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 41 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AC Carina | University of Queensland |
|---|---|---|
| Moggill | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Yeronga Eagles FC | 3-1 W | 0-3 L |
| North Lakes United | 6-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Ipswich Knights | 2-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Springfield United | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| North Pine | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | 3-2 W | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: AC Carina (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AC Carina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 7-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 08/05 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 11 | 10 | W |
| 05/05 | Mudgeeraba Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
University of Queensland
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-4 | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 10 | D |
| 27/06 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 19/06 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Newmarket Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/06 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 06/06 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AC Carina vs University of Queensland?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Carina win (81%). Probabilities: AC Carina 81%, draw 11%, University of Queensland 8%.
How many goals are expected in AC Carina vs University of Queensland?
The model expects 4.69 goals (AC Carina 3.34 · University of Queensland 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in AC Carina vs University of Queensland?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.