Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 3 · 29/07, 11:15
Prediction: Newmarket vs North Pine
Team pages: Newmarket · North Pine
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.76Total
Newmarket3.38
North Pine1.38
1X2
Newmarket
Draw
North Pine
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Newmarket
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
North Pine
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newmarket
3–1–2
North Pine
(6 last)
- North Pine1-5Newmarket
- North Pine1-0Newmarket
- Newmarket2-1North Pine
- Newmarket3-1North Pine
- North Pine3-2Newmarket
- North Pine3-3Newmarket
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newmarket 1630 · North Pine 1439
| Newmarket | Draw | North Pine | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 93% | 5% | 3% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.76 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newmarket (rating 1630 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Newmarket: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newmarket | North Pine | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 5.4 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 22/0/78% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5 | 2.2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newmarket 3–1–2 North Pine
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | North Pine | 1-5 HT 0-2 | Newmarket |
| 30/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | North Pine | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Newmarket |
| 22/02/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 2-1 HT 2-1 | North Pine |
| 17/08/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 3-1 HT 1-0 | North Pine |
| 18/05/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | North Pine | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Newmarket |
| 18/08/23 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | North Pine | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Newmarket |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newmarket | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 79 | 24 | 45 |
| 2 | Moggill | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 28 | 43 |
| 3 | Yeronga FC | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 62 | 30 | 38 |
| 4 | AC Carina | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 27 | 36 |
| 5 | Springfield United | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 44 | 39 | 33 |
| 6 | Ipswich Knights | 22 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 53 | 27 |
| 7 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 45 | 26 |
| 8 | Logan Roos FC | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 58 | 22 |
| 9 | North Brisbane FC | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 61 | 22 |
| 10 | North Lakes United | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 56 | 21 |
| 11 | University of Queensland | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 52 | 19 |
| 12 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 70 | 19 |
| 13 | North Pine | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 41 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newmarket | North Pine |
|---|---|---|
| North Lakes United | 9-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Ipswich Knights | 9-0 W | 1-0 W |
| North Brisbane FC | 5-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Logan Roos FC | 5-2 W | 2-3 L |
| University of Queensland | 3-3 D | 1-0 W |
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | 6-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Moggill | 7-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Newmarket (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newmarket
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-0 | 9-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 22/07 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 6-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 19/07 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-0 | 9-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Yeronga FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
North Pine
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 05/07 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 05/06 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newmarket vs North Pine?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newmarket win (85%). Probabilities: Newmarket 85%, draw 9%, North Pine 7%.
How many goals are expected in Newmarket vs North Pine?
The model expects 4.76 goals (Newmarket 3.38 · North Pine 1.38), with a 55% chance of under 5 goals.
Will both teams score in Newmarket vs North Pine?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.