Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: Banik Most-Sous vs Varnsdorf

Team pages: Banik Most-Sous · Varnsdorf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Banik Most-Sous1.8

Varnsdorf1.3

1X2

48% 24% 27%

Banik Most-Sous Draw Varnsdorf

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Banik Most-Sous 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWLLL

Varnsdorf 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLDDW

Head-to-head

Banik Most-Sous 2–2 Varnsdorf (4 last)

Banik Most-Sous4-0Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf0-3Banik Most-Sous
Varnsdorf1-0Banik Most-Sous
Banik Most-Sous0-3Varnsdorf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Banik Most-Sous 1535 · Varnsdorf 1488

	Banik Most-Sous	Draw	Varnsdorf
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	49%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Banik Most-Sous (rating 1535 vs 1488).
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Banik Most-Sous	Varnsdorf
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.7	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.80

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:06 +3’	1.83	3.80	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Banik Most-Sous 2–0–2 Varnsdorf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Czechia 3. Liga	Banik Most-Sous	4-0 HT 2-0	Varnsdorf
16/11/25 Czechia 3. Liga	Varnsdorf	0-3 HT 0-1	Banik Most-Sous
08/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Varnsdorf	1-0 HT 0-0	Banik Most-Sous
22/07/17 Czechia Cup	Banik Most-Sous	0-3 HT 0-1	Varnsdorf

Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Unicov	12	8	2	2	26	14	26
2	SK Artis Brno B	11	7	4	0	20	4	25
3	FC Brno II	11	7	2	2	24	16	23
4	Frydek Mistek	12	6	3	3	19	13	21
5	SK Hranice	12	6	2	4	16	10	20
6	Sigma Olomouc B	12	6	1	5	20	16	19
7	Slovacko II	12	5	3	4	21	14	18
8	FK Hodonin	12	5	2	5	17	13	17
9	MFK Vitkovice	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
10	TJ Unie Hlubina	12	4	3	5	28	27	15
11	CSK Uhersky Brod	12	4	3	5	18	22	15
12	FC Trinity Zlin B	12	4	3	5	13	17	15
13	MFK Karvina B	12	4	2	6	19	21	14
14	SFK Vrchovina	12	4	2	6	13	24	14
15	FK Blansko	12	2	5	5	18	28	11
16	FC Vsetin	12	3	1	8	11	26	10
17	Polanka	12	2	3	7	11	17	9
18	MFK Havirov	12	1	5	6	9	20	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Banik Most-Sous	Varnsdorf
Mladá Boleslav B	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Jablonec B	1-3 L	0-2 L
SK Sokol Zapy	1-3 L	4-4 D
Velke Hamry	3-0 W	3-1 W
FK Neratovice-Byskovice	4-0 W	2-1 W
MFK Chrudim	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Banik Most-Sous (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Banik Most-Sous

WWLWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	14	4	L
03/10	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-3	1-3	7	5	L
27/09	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	0	9	L
19/09	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
12/09	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	4-0	2	4	W
05/09	FK Horni Redice Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
29/08	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/08	Pardubice B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
07/08	FK Teplice B Czechia 3. Liga	3-0	5-0	1	3	W
06/06	Slovan Velvary Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	9	3	W

Varnsdorf

WWLWWDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	12	2	W
07/10	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
04/10	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	15	6	D
20/09	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	4-4	3	2	D
06/09	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
29/08	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
15/08	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
09/08	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/06	Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga	4-0	5-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Banik Most-Sous vs Varnsdorf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Banik Most-Sous win (48%). Probabilities: Banik Most-Sous 48%, draw 24%, Varnsdorf 27%.

How many goals are expected in Banik Most-Sous vs Varnsdorf?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Banik Most-Sous 1.8 · Varnsdorf 1.3), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Banik Most-Sous vs Varnsdorf?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.