Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: FK Podkonice vs MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto

Team pages: FK Podkonice · MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

FK Podkonice2.64

MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto1.17

1X2

68% 17% 15%

FK Podkonice Draw MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Podkonice 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWLDL

MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWLDLW

Head-to-head

FK Podkonice 2–0 MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto (2 last)

MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto0-1FK Podkonice
FK Podkonice2-0MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Podkonice 1511 · MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto 1461

	FK Podkonice	Draw	MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto
Our model	68%	18%	14%
Market	69%	16%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Podkonice (rating 1511 vs 1461).
H2H favours FK Podkonice: 2-0-0.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Podkonice	MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	1.5 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.3	6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +36’	1.30	5.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Podkonice 2–0–0 MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Slovakia 3. Liga	MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Podkonice
03/08/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	FK Podkonice	2-0 HT 0-0	MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto

Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, Center

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MFK Ruzomberok II	9	7	2	0	30	11	23
2	Namestovo	9	7	1	1	25	9	22
3	FTC Filakovo	9	5	3	1	14	8	18
4	Fomat Martin	9	6	0	3	23	18	18
5	FK Cadca	9	5	1	3	23	11	16
6	FK Podkonice	9	4	2	3	23	17	14
7	Rimavska Sobota	9	4	0	5	13	18	12
8	SK Novohrad Lucenec	9	3	1	5	13	13	10
9	TJ Tatran Oravske Vesele	9	3	1	5	10	16	10
10	Banik Kalinovo	9	3	1	5	11	16	10
11	Dukla Banska Bystrica B	9	2	2	5	7	16	8
12	Tj Medzibrod	9	2	2	5	6	18	8
13	MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto	9	2	1	6	12	25	7
14	Dolny Kubin	9	1	1	7	6	20	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Podkonice	MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto
Namestovo	1-2 L	0-4 L
MFK Ruzomberok II	4-4 D	1-2 L
Fomat Martin	3-4 L	3-7 L
Tj Medzibrod	3-0 W	5-0 W
TJ Tatran Oravske Vesele	1-3 L	1-0 W
FK Cadca	3-0 W	0-6 L
MFK Bytca	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Podkonice (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Podkonice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Namestovo Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
24/09	MFK Ruzomberok II Slovakia 3. Liga	1-3	4-4	4	4	D
19/09	Fomat Martin Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	3-4	–	–	L
13/09	Banik Kalinovo Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	3-2	10	3	W
05/09	SK Novohrad Lucenec Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
30/08	Dukla Banska Bystrica B Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
23/08	Tj Medzibrod Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	TJ Tatran Oravske Vesele Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
09/08	FK Cadca Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/05	MFK Bytca Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto

LWLLLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	TJ Tatran Oravske Vesele Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	FK Cadca Slovakia 3. Liga	0-3	0-6	–	–	L
19/09	FTC Filakovo Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Rimavska Sobota Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
30/08	Tj Medzibrod Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-0	6	6	W
22/08	Namestovo Slovakia 3. Liga	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	MFK Ruzomberok II Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Fomat Martin Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	3-7	–	–	L
30/05	TJ Jednota Banova Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
23/05	MFK Bytca Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Podkonice vs MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Podkonice win (68%). Probabilities: FK Podkonice 68%, draw 17%, MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto 15%.

How many goals are expected in FK Podkonice vs MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto?

The model expects 3.81 goals (FK Podkonice 2.64 · MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Podkonice vs MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.