Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 18/10, 14:30

Prediction: TJ Kovo Belusa vs FC Nitra

Team pages: TJ Kovo Belusa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

TJ Kovo Belusa1.19

FC Nitra1.96

1X2

22% 23% 55%

TJ Kovo Belusa Draw FC Nitra

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

TJ Kovo Belusa 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLDDDD

FC Nitra 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

TJ Kovo Belusa 2–0 FC Nitra (2 last)

TJ Kovo Belusa3-0FC Nitra
FC Nitra0-2TJ Kovo Belusa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TJ Kovo Belusa 1548 · FC Nitra 1617

	TJ Kovo Belusa	Draw	FC Nitra
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	23%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Nitra (rating 1548 vs 1617).
H2H favours TJ Kovo Belusa: 2-0-0.
High corners: 15.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TJ Kovo Belusa	FC Nitra
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	3.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.6	4.5 / 8.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.90

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +15’	3.90	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TJ Kovo Belusa 2–0–0 FC Nitra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/22 Slovakia 3. Liga	TJ Kovo Belusa	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Nitra
15/09/21 Slovakia 3. Liga	FC Nitra	0-2 HT 0-2	TJ Kovo Belusa

Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Nitra	10	9	1	0	36	7	28
2	OFK Dunajska Luzna	11	6	3	2	15	9	21
3	Puchov	10	5	4	1	19	6	19
4	Spartak Myjava	11	5	3	3	20	14	18
5	TJ Kovo Belusa	10	4	5	1	20	12	17
6	SK 1923 Gabcikovo	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
7	FC Banik Prievidza	11	5	1	5	19	18	16
8	FK Nove Zamky	11	4	3	4	13	18	15
9	AS Trencin B	11	4	2	5	23	22	14
10	MSK Senec	11	4	0	7	10	20	12
11	OK Castkovce	11	3	2	6	18	25	11
12	Dunajska Streda B	10	3	2	5	19	18	11
13	KFC Komarno B	10	3	2	5	11	23	11
14	Raca Bratislava	10	2	4	4	13	21	10
15	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	11	2	3	6	15	29	9
16	Slovan Duslo Šala	11	1	3	7	8	19	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TJ Kovo Belusa	FC Nitra
AS Trencin B	1-1 D	4-2 W
FK Nove Zamky	0-0 D	5-1 W
Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	2-2 D	5-0 W
Spartak Myjava	0-0 D	5-1 W
Puchov	0-2 L	0-0 D
Raca Bratislava	4-2 W	6-0 W
Slovan Duslo Šala	3-1 W	4-0 W
Dunajska Streda B	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Nitra (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TJ Kovo Belusa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
04/10	FK Nove Zamky Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
27/09	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
20/09	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
12/09	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
06/09	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
30/08	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-0	9	3	W
23/08	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	4-2	6	4	W
15/08	Slovan Duslo Šala Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
09/08	Dunajska Streda B Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	13	8	W

FC Nitra

DWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	4-0	6-0	7	1	W
04/10	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	4-2	6	5	W
26/09	Slovan Duslo Šala Slovakia 3. Liga	3-0	4-0	8	6	W
19/09	FK Nove Zamky Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-1	–	–	W
12/09	Dunajska Streda B Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	11	3	W
06/09	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC Banik Prievidza Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	2-0	11	5	W
23/08	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
15/08	OK Castkovce Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	3-2	10	2	W
08/08	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TJ Kovo Belusa vs FC Nitra?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Nitra win (55%). Probabilities: TJ Kovo Belusa 22%, draw 23%, FC Nitra 55%.

How many goals are expected in TJ Kovo Belusa vs FC Nitra?

The model expects 3.15 goals (TJ Kovo Belusa 1.19 · FC Nitra 1.96), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in TJ Kovo Belusa vs FC Nitra?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.