Football · Denmark Division 3 · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: Horsholm-Usserod IK vs Sundby

Team pages: Horsholm-Usserod IK · Sundby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Horsholm-Usserod IK2.09

Sundby1.63

1X2

48% 23% 29%

Horsholm-Usserod IK Draw Sundby

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Horsholm-Usserod IK 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLWWDW

Sundby 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Horsholm-Usserod IK 2–1–3 Sundby (6 last)

Sundby4-4Horsholm-Usserod IK
Sundby2-1Horsholm-Usserod IK
Horsholm-Usserod IK4-3Sundby
Sundby3-1Horsholm-Usserod IK
Horsholm-Usserod IK2-1Sundby
Sundby3-2Horsholm-Usserod IK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Horsholm-Usserod IK 1514 · Sundby 1505

	Horsholm-Usserod IK	Draw	Sundby
Our model	48%	23%	29%
Market	48%	23%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sundby: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Horsholm-Usserod IK	Sundby
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.90

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +12’	1.90	3.90	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Horsholm-Usserod IK 2–1–3 Sundby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Denmark Division 3	Sundby	4-4 HT 2-2	Horsholm-Usserod IK
14/03/26 Denmark Division 3	Sundby	2-1 HT 0-0	Horsholm-Usserod IK
11/10/25 Denmark Division 3	Horsholm-Usserod IK	4-3 HT 1-2	Sundby
20/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Sundby	3-1 HT 2-1	Horsholm-Usserod IK
24/05/24 Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion	Horsholm-Usserod IK	2-1 HT 0-0	Sundby
19/04/24 Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion	Sundby	3-2 HT 1-2	Horsholm-Usserod IK

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Holbæk	13	9	2	2	32	19	29
2	Bronshoj BK	13	7	4	2	27	16	25
3	Vanløse	13	6	6	1	19	11	24
4	FC Helsingor	13	6	3	4	21	17	21
5	Horsholm-Usserod IK	13	5	4	4	29	22	19
6	Næsby	13	5	3	5	23	20	18
7	Sundby	13	5	1	7	21	21	16
8	ASA Aarhus	13	5	1	7	16	19	16
9	Ishoj	13	4	3	6	14	22	15
10	Frem	13	3	5	5	21	21	14
11	Holstebro	13	4	1	8	18	34	13
12	Ringsted IF	13	1	3	9	17	36	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Horsholm-Usserod IK	Sundby
Holstebro	4-0 W	2-0 W
Frem	1-1 D	3-0 W
Ringsted IF	4-2 W	0-2 L
FC Helsingor	3-1 W	1-2 L
ASA Aarhus	1-2 L	2-1 W
Vanløse	1-1 D	0-1 L
Bronshoj BK	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Horsholm-Usserod IK (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Horsholm-Usserod IK

DLLWDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	3-0	4-0	5	5	W
17/10	Frem Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-1	10	5	D
10/10	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	4-2	4-2	3	3	W
03/10	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	1-0	3-1	0	5	W
26/09	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
19/09	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
05/09	Næsby Denmark Division 3	0-2	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
22/08	Sundby Denmark Division 3	2-2	4-4	–	–	D

Sundby

DLWLWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	1-1	3-1	1	3	W
17/10	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
09/10	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
03/10	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
26/09	Frem Denmark Division 3	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
19/09	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
13/09	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	1-2	1-2	6	7	L
05/09	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
29/08	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	2-2	4-4	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Horsholm-Usserod IK vs Sundby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Horsholm-Usserod IK win (48%). Probabilities: Horsholm-Usserod IK 48%, draw 23%, Sundby 29%.

How many goals are expected in Horsholm-Usserod IK vs Sundby?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Horsholm-Usserod IK 2.09 · Sundby 1.63), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Horsholm-Usserod IK vs Sundby?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.