Football · Denmark Division 3 · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: ASA Aarhus vs Frem

Team pages: ASA Aarhus · Frem

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

ASA Aarhus1.54

Frem1.54

1X2

37% 26% 37%

ASA Aarhus Draw Frem

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ASA Aarhus 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLLLL

Frem 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLDWDD

Head-to-head

ASA Aarhus 0–1 Frem (1 last)

Frem3-1ASA Aarhus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASA Aarhus 1441 · Frem 1483

	ASA Aarhus	Draw	Frem
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frem (rating 1441 vs 1483).
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASA Aarhus	Frem
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +16’	2.40	3.50	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASA Aarhus 0–0–1 Frem

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Denmark Division 3	Frem	3-1 HT 2-0	ASA Aarhus

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Holbæk	13	9	2	2	32	19	29
2	Bronshoj BK	13	7	4	2	27	16	25
3	Vanløse	13	6	6	1	19	11	24
4	FC Helsingor	13	6	3	4	21	17	21
5	Horsholm-Usserod IK	13	5	4	4	29	22	19
6	Næsby	13	5	3	5	23	20	18
7	Sundby	13	5	1	7	21	21	16
8	ASA Aarhus	13	5	1	7	16	19	16
9	Ishoj	13	4	3	6	14	22	15
10	Frem	13	3	5	5	21	21	14
11	Holstebro	13	4	1	8	18	34	13
12	Ringsted IF	13	1	3	9	17	36	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASA Aarhus	Frem
Vanløse	0-1 L	2-2 D
Sundby	1-2 L	0-3 L
FC Helsingor	1-2 L	1-1 D
Horsholm-Usserod IK	2-1 W	1-1 D
Bronshoj BK	1-5 L	1-1 D
Næsby	1-0 W	2-0 W
Holstebro	4-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Frem (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASA Aarhus

LWLWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
17/10	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
10/10	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
03/10	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
26/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
19/09	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-5	1	3	L
13/09	Næsby Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
05/09	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
28/08	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-0	3	3	W
22/08	Frem Denmark Division 3	0-2	1-3	–	–	L

Frem

WDWLLLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
17/10	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-1	10	5	D
10/10	Næsby Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
03/10	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-1	1	1	D
26/09	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
19/09	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	2-1	2-3	6	3	L
13/09	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-3	5	1	L
04/09	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	3-1	5-2	5	2	W
29/08	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
22/08	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	2-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASA Aarhus vs Frem?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASA Aarhus win (37%). Probabilities: ASA Aarhus 37%, draw 26%, Frem 37%.

How many goals are expected in ASA Aarhus vs Frem?

The model expects 3.08 goals (ASA Aarhus 1.54 · Frem 1.54), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ASA Aarhus vs Frem?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.