Football · Denmark Division 3 · 31/10, 13:00

Prediction: Holbæk vs Vanløse

Team pages: Holbæk · Vanløse

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Holbæk1.77

Vanløse1.14

1X2

52% 25% 24%

Holbæk Draw Vanløse

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Holbæk 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWDWW

Vanløse 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDWDDW

Head-to-head

Holbæk 2–2–2 Vanløse (6 last)

Vanløse0-0Holbæk
Holbæk4-1Vanløse
Vanløse1-3Holbæk
Holbæk1-2Vanløse
Vanløse1-1Holbæk
Vanløse1-0Holbæk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holbæk 1572 · Vanløse 1526

	Holbæk	Draw	Vanløse
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Holbæk (rating 1572 vs 1526).
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holbæk	Vanløse
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:06 +7’	1.73	3.70	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Holbæk 2–2–2 Vanløse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/10/26 Denmark Division 3	Vanløse	0-0 HT 0-0	Holbæk
08/11/25 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	4-1 HT 2-1	Vanløse
20/09/25 Denmark Division 3	Vanløse	1-3 HT 0-1	Holbæk
06/04/24 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	1-2 HT 0-0	Vanløse
18/08/23 Denmark Division 3	Vanløse	1-1 HT 1-0	Holbæk
10/08/19 Denmark 2. Division Group 1	Vanløse	1-0 HT 1-0	Holbæk

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Holbæk	13	9	2	2	32	19	29
2	Bronshoj BK	13	7	4	2	27	16	25
3	Vanløse	13	6	6	1	19	11	24
4	FC Helsingor	13	6	3	4	21	17	21
5	Horsholm-Usserod IK	13	5	4	4	29	22	19
6	Næsby	13	5	3	5	23	20	18
7	Sundby	13	5	1	7	21	21	16
8	ASA Aarhus	13	5	1	7	16	19	16
9	Ishoj	13	4	3	6	14	22	15
10	Frem	13	3	5	5	21	21	14
11	Holstebro	13	4	1	8	18	34	13
12	Ringsted IF	13	1	3	9	17	36	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holbæk	Vanløse
Næsby	2-1 W	2-2 D
Holstebro	4-0 W	2-1 W
ASA Aarhus	2-1 W	1-0 W
Ringsted IF	5-2 W	2-0 W
Horsholm-Usserod IK	1-3 L	1-1 D
Ishoj	4-0 W	1-0 W
Bronshoj BK	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Holbæk (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holbæk

WWWLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Næsby Denmark Division 3	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
17/10	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
10/10	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
03/10	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
25/09	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-4	1-5	4	5	L
18/09	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	3-1	5-2	2	4	W
13/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
05/09	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	1-0	4-0	0	3	W
29/08	Næsby Denmark Division 3	2-2	3-2	2	2	W
21/08	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-1	–	–	W

Vanløse

WDWWDDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/10	Næsby Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-2	6	6	D
10/10	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
03/10	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
26/09	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
19/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
05/09	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
29/08	Frem Denmark Division 3	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holbæk vs Vanløse?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Holbæk win (52%). Probabilities: Holbæk 52%, draw 25%, Vanløse 24%.

How many goals are expected in Holbæk vs Vanløse?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Holbæk 1.77 · Vanløse 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Holbæk vs Vanløse?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.