Prediction: Holbæk vs Sundby
- Sundby1-5Holbæk
- Holbæk2-0Sundby
- Holbæk2-2Sundby
- Sundby2-0Holbæk
- Holbæk0-2Sundby
- Sundby1-0Holbæk
| Holbæk | Draw | Sundby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Holbæk (rating 1585 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Sundby: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Holbæk | Sundby | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 5 | 1.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Holbæk 2–1–3 Sundby
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 Denmark Division 3 | Sundby | 1-5 HT 0-0 | Holbæk |
| 02/05/26 Denmark Division 3 | Holbæk | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sundby |
| 21/03/26 Denmark Division 3 | Holbæk | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Sundby |
| 22/08/25 Denmark Division 3 | Sundby | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Holbæk |
| 28/03/25 Denmark Division 3 | Holbæk | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Sundby |
| 06/09/24 Denmark Division 3 | Sundby | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Holbæk |
Standings · Denmark Division 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanløse | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Bronshoj BK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | FC Helsingor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Holstebro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 5 | Holbæk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | ASA Aarhus | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Næsby | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Horsholm-Usserod IK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 8 | Ringsted IF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 10 | Frem | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | Ishoj | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Sundby | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Holbæk | Sundby |
|---|---|---|
| Frem | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Vejgaard B | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| IF Lyseng | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Odder IGF | 4-2 W | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Holbæk (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Holbæk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Holstebro Denmark Division 3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 04/08 | AB Copenhagen Denmark Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Frem Denmark Division 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Hellerup IK Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Vejgaard B Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/06 | Sundby Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | IF Lyseng Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Frem Denmark Division 3 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Odder IGF Denmark Division 3 |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Vejgaard B Denmark Division 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
Sundby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 05/08 | Slagelse Denmark Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Næsby Denmark Division 3 |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Ringsted IF Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 21/07 | Fremad Amager Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Frem Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 04/06 | Holbæk Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Odder IGF Denmark Division 3 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | IF Lyseng Denmark Division 3 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Vejgaard B Denmark Division 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Holbæk vs Sundby?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Holbæk win (65%). Probabilities: Holbæk 65%, draw 19%, Sundby 15%.
How many goals are expected in Holbæk vs Sundby?
The model expects 3.46 goals (Holbæk 2.37 · Sundby 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Holbæk vs Sundby?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.