Football · Hungary NB II · 10/10, 17:00

Prediction: Tiszakecske FC vs FC Ajka

Team pages: Tiszakecske FC · FC Ajka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Tiszakecske FC1.58

FC Ajka1.21

1X2

45% 27% 28%

Tiszakecske FC Draw FC Ajka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tiszakecske FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDWWWD

FC Ajka 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Tiszakecske FC 4–1–1 FC Ajka (6 last)

FC Ajka1-4Tiszakecske FC
FC Ajka0-0Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC2-1FC Ajka
Tiszakecske FC2-1FC Ajka
FC Ajka1-0Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC1-0FC Ajka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tiszakecske FC 1549 · FC Ajka 1461

	Tiszakecske FC	Draw	FC Ajka
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tiszakecske FC (rating 1549 vs 1461).
H2H favours Tiszakecske FC: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tiszakecske FC	FC Ajka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.1	2.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +5’	2.00	3.25	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tiszakecske FC 4–1–1 FC Ajka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Hungary NB II	FC Ajka	1-4 HT 0-1	Tiszakecske FC
29/10/25 Hungary Cup	FC Ajka	0-0 HT 0-0	Tiszakecske FC
19/10/25 Hungary NB II	Tiszakecske FC	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Ajka
05/05/24 Hungary NB II	Tiszakecske FC	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Ajka
05/11/23 Hungary NB II	FC Ajka	1-0 HT 1-0	Tiszakecske FC
01/11/23 Hungary Cup	Tiszakecske FC	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Ajka

Standings · Hungary NB II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Soroksar	8	6	2	0	23	7	20
2	Kecskemeti TE	8	5	2	1	15	8	17
3	Tiszakecske FC	8	4	4	0	17	10	16
4	FC Ajka	7	4	2	1	9	6	14
5	Gyirmot SE	8	4	1	3	13	14	13
6	Kazincbarcikai BSC	8	3	4	1	13	11	13
7	Mezokovesd Zsory	7	4	0	3	11	8	12
8	Karcagi SE	8	2	5	1	13	11	11
9	Szentlorinc SE	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
10	Fehervar FC	8	3	0	5	11	11	9
11	FC Nagykanizsa	8	3	0	5	7	10	9
12	Diosgyori VTK	7	2	1	4	8	15	7
13	Szeged-Csanad Grosics	7	1	3	3	6	8	6
14	BVSC Zuglo	7	1	1	5	4	9	4
15	Kozarmisleny SE	8	1	1	6	6	16	4
16	Csakvari TK	8	1	1	6	8	19	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tiszakecske FC	FC Ajka
Soroksar	3-3 D	0-3 L
Szentlorinc SE	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Nagykanizsa	2-1 W	2-0 W
Diosgyori VTK	4-1 W	1-1 D
Karcagi SE	3-3 D	1-1 D
Kecskemeti TE	1-1 D	3-1 W
Szeged-Csanad Grosics	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tiszakecske FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tiszakecske FC

WLDDWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Soroksar Hungary NB II	3-1	3-3	3	7	D
05/09	Szentlorinc SE Hungary NB II	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC Nagykanizsa Hungary NB II	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
22/08	Diosgyori VTK Hungary NB II	2-1	4-1	13	2	W
16/08	Karcagi SE Hungary NB II	0-1	3-3	4	7	D
08/08	Mezokovesd Zsory Hungary NB II	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Kecskemeti TE Hungary NB II	1-1	1-1	6	8	D
25/07	Szeged-Csanad Grosics Hungary NB II	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
17/05	Szentlorinc SE Hungary NB II	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
10/05	Karcagi SE Hungary NB II	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

FC Ajka

LLLWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Csakvari TK Hungary NB II	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Soroksar Hungary NB II	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
30/08	Szentlorinc SE Hungary NB II	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
22/08	FC Nagykanizsa Hungary NB II	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
15/08	Diosgyori VTK Hungary NB II	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
08/08	Karcagi SE Hungary NB II	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
25/07	Kecskemeti TE Hungary NB II	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
17/05	Vasas SC Hungary NB II	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
10/05	Szeged-Csanad Grosics Hungary NB II	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	Soroksar Hungary NB II	0-3	1-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tiszakecske FC vs FC Ajka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tiszakecske FC win (45%). Probabilities: Tiszakecske FC 45%, draw 27%, FC Ajka 28%.

How many goals are expected in Tiszakecske FC vs FC Ajka?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Tiszakecske FC 1.58 · FC Ajka 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tiszakecske FC vs FC Ajka?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.