Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 08/08, 19:00

Prediction: Deportivo Mixco vs Marquense

Team pages: Deportivo Mixco · Marquense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Deportivo Mixco1.76

Marquense0.87

1X2

58% 25% 18%

Deportivo Mixco Draw Marquense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Mixco 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLLLLW

Marquense 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Mixco 3–1–2 Marquense (6 last)

Deportivo Mixco2-1Marquense
Marquense2-1Deportivo Mixco
Marquense1-2Deportivo Mixco
Deportivo Mixco1-0Marquense
Marquense1-1Deportivo Mixco
Deportivo Mixco2-3Marquense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Mixco 1492 · Marquense 1455

	Deportivo Mixco	Draw	Marquense
Our model	57%	26%	17%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Mixco: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Mixco	Marquense
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	0.7 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.55▲	Bet365 1.55
X	3.90 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.71
2	6.50 → 5.00▼	Pinn 6.12 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:14 +45’	1.42	3.90	6.50
17:52 +4’	1.55▲	3.70▼	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:25 +1’	1.59	3.44	5.11
10:26 +1’	1.58▼	3.57▲	5.61▲
11:29	1.55▼	3.62▲	5.79▲
20:14 +3’	1.48▼	3.83▲	6.50▲
06:12 +1’	1.45▼	3.92▲	6.80▲
12:51 +8’	1.54▲	3.65▼	5.94▼
18:26 +2’	1.55▲	3.71▲	6.12▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Mixco 3–1–2 Marquense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	2-1 HT 0-0	Marquense
20/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Marquense	2-1 HT 2-1	Deportivo Mixco
16/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Marquense	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Mixco
12/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	1-0 HT 0-0	Marquense
10/03/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Marquense	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Mixco
22/01/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	2-3 HT 2-2	Marquense

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guastatoya	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	CSD Municipal	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Xelaju	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
4	CSD Comunicaciones	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Antigua GFC	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
6	Deportivo Mixco	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	Deportivo San Pedro	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Malacateco	3	0	2	1	3	7	2
9	Coban Imperial	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
10	Suchitepequez	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Marquense	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
12	Aurora	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Mixco	Marquense
CSD Municipal	0-2 L	1-2 L
Aurora	4-0 W	1-0 W
Mictlán	2-2 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Marquense (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Mixco

DWLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
29/07	CD Olimpia CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
25/07	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
10/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-5	4	8	L
06/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
02/05	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	9	11	W
29/04	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
26/04	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
19/04	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	4-0	2	2	W
17/04	Mictlán Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-2	3	7	D

Marquense

WLWWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
25/07	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-3	3	4	L
04/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	2	12	L
01/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
26/04	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-3	0-4	1	3	L
19/04	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
15/04	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/04	Mictlán Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
07/04	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
02/04	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Mixco vs Marquense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Mixco win (58%). Probabilities: Deportivo Mixco 58%, draw 25%, Marquense 18%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Mixco vs Marquense?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Deportivo Mixco 1.76 · Marquense 0.87), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Mixco vs Marquense?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.