Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 09/08, 03:00

Prediction: Antigua GFC vs Guastatoya

Team pages: Antigua GFC · Guastatoya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Antigua GFC1.88

Guastatoya0.99

1X2

57% 26% 18%

Antigua GFC Draw Guastatoya

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Antigua GFC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLWLL

Guastatoya 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Antigua GFC 5–1 Guastatoya (6 last)

Guastatoya3-0Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC2-0Guastatoya
Guastatoya0-3Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC3-1Guastatoya
Antigua GFC2-0Guastatoya
Guastatoya0-3Antigua GFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Antigua GFC 1535 · Guastatoya 1501

	Antigua GFC	Draw	Guastatoya
Our model	57%	24%	18%
Market	56%	27%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Antigua GFC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Antigua GFC	Guastatoya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.4	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.40

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 04:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.68
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	4.75 → 5.25▲	Pinn 6.73 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:07 +3’	1.61	3.50	4.75
18:09 +1’	1.75▲	3.40▼	4.10▼
20:14 +21’	1.75	2.80▼	4.10
23:56 +7’	1.80▲	3.25▲	4.20▲
04:06 +2’	1.61▼	3.40▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:33 +1’	1.93	2.58	5.43
23:59 +4’	1.81▼	2.68▲	5.95▲
04:07 +1’	1.68▼	2.88▲	6.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Antigua GFC 5–0–1 Guastatoya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Guastatoya	3-0 HT 0-0	Antigua GFC
25/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	2-0 HT 0-0	Guastatoya
10/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Guastatoya	0-3 HT 0-1	Antigua GFC
07/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	3-1 HT 0-0	Guastatoya
04/05/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	2-0 HT 1-0	Guastatoya
01/05/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Guastatoya	0-3 HT 0-2	Antigua GFC

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guastatoya	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	CSD Municipal	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Xelaju	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
4	CSD Comunicaciones	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Antigua GFC	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
6	Deportivo Mixco	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	Deportivo San Pedro	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Malacateco	3	0	2	1	3	7	2
9	Coban Imperial	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
10	Suchitepequez	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Marquense	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
12	Aurora	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Antigua GFC	Guastatoya
Marquense	3-1 W	4-0 W
CSD Comunicaciones	0-2 L	0-1 L
CD Achuapa	2-2 D	3-1 W
Malacateco	2-1 W	4-0 W
CSD Municipal	1-0 W	0-2 L
Aurora	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guastatoya (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Antigua GFC

WWLWDWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Real Esteli CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-1	0-2	10	7	L
30/07	Alianza FC CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
25/07	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/05	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	7	7	L
30/04	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	3-2	6	9	W
26/04	CD Achuapa Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-2	7	6	D
20/04	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	5	1	W
16/04	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
12/04	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
04/04	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	3	5	W

Guastatoya

LWDWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	4-0	4	7	W
25/07	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
04/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
01/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
26/04	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	3	3	W
21/04	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
16/04	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/04	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	5	12	D
07/04	CD Achuapa Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
03/04	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	3	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Antigua GFC vs Guastatoya?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Antigua GFC win (57%). Probabilities: Antigua GFC 57%, draw 26%, Guastatoya 18%.

How many goals are expected in Antigua GFC vs Guastatoya?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Antigua GFC 1.88 · Guastatoya 0.99), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Antigua GFC vs Guastatoya?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.