Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 23/08, 23:00

Prediction: Deportivo Mixco vs Guastatoya

Team pages: Deportivo Mixco · Guastatoya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Deportivo Mixco1.19

Guastatoya0.82

1X2

44% 31% 25%

Deportivo Mixco Draw Guastatoya

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 68% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Mixco 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLWWL

Guastatoya 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Mixco 2–4 Guastatoya (6 last)

Deportivo Mixco1-0Guastatoya
Guastatoya2-0Deportivo Mixco
Guastatoya1-0Deportivo Mixco
Deportivo Mixco2-0Guastatoya
Guastatoya1-0Deportivo Mixco
Deportivo Mixco0-1Guastatoya

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Mixco 1475 · Guastatoya 1519

	Deportivo Mixco	Draw	Guastatoya
Our model	43%	33%	24%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guastatoya (rating 1475 vs 1519).
H2H favours Guastatoya: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Mixco	Guastatoya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.5	5.1 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 16:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.11
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	4.00 → 3.50▼	Pinn 4.27 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:17 +4’	1.80	3.20	4.00
14:20 +3’	2.05▲	3.10▼	3.30▼
21:53 +3’	1.83▼	3.20▲	4.00▲
16:30 +4’	2.00▲	3.10▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:49 +1’	2.25	2.51	4.00
14:22 +1’	2.24▼	2.53▲	4.02▲
21:52 +4’	2.12▼	2.56▲	4.33▲
08:08	2.08▼	2.59▲	4.43▲
21:24 +4’	2.13▲	2.58▼	4.28▼
23:29 +1’	2.11▼	2.60▲	4.27▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Mixco 2–0–4 Guastatoya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	1-0 HT 1-0	Guastatoya
23/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Guastatoya	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Mixco
07/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Guastatoya	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Mixco
30/08/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	2-0 HT 0-0	Guastatoya
27/04/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Guastatoya	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Mixco
01/03/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	0-1 HT 0-1	Guastatoya

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Antigua GFC	3	3	0	0	7	1	9
2	Guastatoya	4	3	0	1	6	2	9
2	CSD Municipal	4	3	0	1	6	2	9
2	Deportivo San Pedro	4	3	0	1	6	2	9
5	CSD Comunicaciones	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
6	Deportivo Mixco	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
7	Xelaju	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
8	Coban Imperial	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
9	Aurora	4	1	0	3	5	7	3
10	Marquense	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
11	Malacateco	4	0	2	2	5	11	2
12	Suchitepequez	4	0	1	3	1	7	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Mixco	Guastatoya
Coban Imperial	2-3 L	1-1 D
Marquense	1-0 W	4-0 W
CSD Municipal	0-2 L	1-0 W
Aurora	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Guastatoya (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Mixco

WLLWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	2-3	6	9	L
08/08	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
01/08	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
25/07	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
10/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-5	4	8	L
06/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
02/05	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	9	11	W
29/04	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
26/04	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
19/04	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	4-0	2	2	W

Guastatoya

DWLWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
09/08	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
02/08	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	4-0	4	7	W
25/07	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
04/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
01/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
26/04	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	3	3	W
21/04	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
16/04	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/04	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	5	12	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Mixco vs Guastatoya?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Mixco win (44%). Probabilities: Deportivo Mixco 44%, draw 31%, Guastatoya 25%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Mixco vs Guastatoya?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Deportivo Mixco 1.19 · Guastatoya 0.82), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Mixco vs Guastatoya?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.