Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 23/08, 04:00
Prediction: CSD Municipal vs Xelaju
Team pages: CSD Municipal · Xelaju
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
CSD Municipal1.94
Xelaju0.74
1X2
CSD Municipal
Draw
Xelaju
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
CSD Municipal
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Xelaju
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CSD Municipal
3–2–1
Xelaju
(6 last)
- Xelaju1-2CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal4-1Xelaju
- Xelaju3-1CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal1-0Xelaju
- Xelaju1-1CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal1-1Xelaju
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CSD Municipal 1596 · Xelaju 1501
| CSD Municipal | Draw | Xelaju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSD Municipal (rating 1596 vs 1501).
- H2H favours CSD Municipal: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CSD Municipal | Xelaju | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.2 | 2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.4 | 5.7 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CSD Municipal 3–2–1 Xelaju
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 1-2 HT 1-1 | CSD Municipal |
| 17/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Xelaju |
| 20/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 3-1 HT 0-1 | CSD Municipal |
| 29/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Xelaju |
| 03/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 1-1 HT 1-0 | CSD Municipal |
| 24/08/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Xelaju |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Guastatoya | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | CSD Municipal | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Deportivo San Pedro | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | CSD Comunicaciones | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Deportivo Mixco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Xelaju | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Coban Imperial | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 9 | Aurora | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 10 | Marquense | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CSD Municipal | Xelaju |
|---|---|---|
| Coban Imperial | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Marquense | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CSD Municipal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 10/08 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 06/05 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Xelaju
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/08 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/07 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/05 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/05 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 12 | W |
| 01/05 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CSD Municipal vs Xelaju?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CSD Municipal win (65%). Probabilities: CSD Municipal 65%, draw 23%, Xelaju 13%.
How many goals are expected in CSD Municipal vs Xelaju?
The model expects 2.69 goals (CSD Municipal 1.94 · Xelaju 0.74), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CSD Municipal vs Xelaju?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.