Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 05/10, 01:00
Prediction: Guastatoya vs Aurora
Team pages: Guastatoya · Aurora
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Guastatoya1.96
Aurora0.92
1X2
Guastatoya
Draw
Aurora
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Guastatoya
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Aurora
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Guastatoya
3–1–1
Aurora
(5 last)
- Aurora0-1Guastatoya
- Aurora0-1Guastatoya
- Guastatoya2-2Aurora
- Guastatoya3-2Aurora
- Aurora1-0Guastatoya
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Guastatoya 1555 · Aurora 1457
| Guastatoya | Draw | Aurora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guastatoya (rating 1555 vs 1457).
- H2H favours Guastatoya: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Guastatoya | Aurora | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 2.9 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.4 | 4.5 / 0.9 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Guastatoya 3–1–1 Aurora
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Aurora | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Guastatoya |
| 19/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Aurora | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Guastatoya |
| 29/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Aurora |
| 29/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 3-2 HT 3-0 | Aurora |
| 20/07/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Aurora | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Guastatoya |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSD Municipal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 23 |
| 2 | Guastatoya | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 21 |
| 4 | Deportivo San Pedro | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Deportivo Mixco | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 18 |
| 6 | Marquense | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Xelaju | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 15 |
| 8 | Aurora | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 12 |
| 9 | Malacateco | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 12 |
| 10 | CSD Comunicaciones | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
| 11 | Coban Imperial | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 10 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 6 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Guastatoya | Aurora |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo San Pedro | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Xelaju | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Suchitepequez | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Coban Imperial | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Marquense | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Mixco | 2-4 L | 2-3 L |
| CSD Municipal | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Antigua GFC | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Malacateco | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 6 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guastatoya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 14/09 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/08 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Aurora
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 10/09 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 31/08 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 04/08 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guastatoya vs Aurora?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Guastatoya win (61%). Probabilities: Guastatoya 61%, draw 24%, Aurora 16%.
How many goals are expected in Guastatoya vs Aurora?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Guastatoya 1.96 · Aurora 0.92), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Guastatoya vs Aurora?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.