Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 27/09, 02:00
Prediction: Marquense vs Malacateco
Team pages: Marquense · Malacateco
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Marquense1.45
Malacateco1.02
1X2
Marquense
Draw
Malacateco
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Marquense
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Malacateco
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marquense
3–3
Malacateco
(6 last)
- Marquense1-0Malacateco
- Malacateco2-1Marquense
- Malacateco2-1Marquense
- Marquense4-1Malacateco
- Marquense2-0Malacateco
- Malacateco1-0Marquense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marquense 1485 · Malacateco 1491
| Marquense | Draw | Malacateco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marquense | Malacateco | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 5.9 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.5 | 4.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marquense 3–0–3 Malacateco
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Malacateco |
| 22/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Marquense |
| 02/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Marquense |
| 25/08/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Malacateco |
| 27/04/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Malacateco |
| 02/03/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Marquense |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | CSD Municipal | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 20 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Deportivo San Pedro | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Deportivo Mixco | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
| 6 | Marquense | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 13 |
| 7 | Xelaju | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Aurora | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 9 | Malacateco | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| 10 | CSD Comunicaciones | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | Coban Imperial | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 7 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marquense | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Xelaju | 0-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Guastatoya | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Coban Imperial | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Suchitepequez | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Mixco | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| CSD Municipal | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Antigua GFC | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 5 L | 3 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Malacateco (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marquense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 10/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/08 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/08 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 08/08 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 8 | L |
| 03/08 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Malacateco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/09 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marquense vs Malacateco?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marquense win (46%). Probabilities: Marquense 46%, draw 29%, Malacateco 26%.
How many goals are expected in Marquense vs Malacateco?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Marquense 1.45 · Malacateco 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Marquense vs Malacateco?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.