Football · Spain Segunda · 30/08, 19:00

Prediction: Cadiz vs Valladolid

Team pages: Cadiz · Valladolid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Cadiz1.08

Valladolid0.97

1X2

37% 32% 31%

Cadiz Draw Valladolid

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Cadiz 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDWLDD

Valladolid 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Cadiz 2–3–1 Valladolid (6 last)

Valladolid3-0Cadiz
Cadiz0-0Valladolid
Cadiz2-0Valladolid
Valladolid0-1Cadiz
Valladolid1-1Cadiz
Cadiz0-0Valladolid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cadiz 1406 · Valladolid 1479

	Cadiz	Draw	Valladolid
Our model	36%	33%	31%
Market	37%	31%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valladolid (rating 1406 vs 1479).
H2H favours Cadiz: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cadiz	Valladolid
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	0.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 15:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.02
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.23 ★

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:49 +46’	2.40	3.00	3.00
03:17 +3’	2.20▼	3.00	3.30▲
06:15 +9’	2.25▲	3.00	3.20▼
10:33 +2’	2.35▲	3.00	3.10▼
05:58 +5’	2.40▲	3.00	3.20▲
13:47 +10’	2.63▲	3.00	2.90▼
15:01 +4’	2.55▼	3.00	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +1’	2.44	3.02	3.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cadiz 2–3–1 Valladolid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 Spain Segunda	Valladolid	3-0 HT 2-0	Cadiz
09/11/25 Spain Segunda	Cadiz	0-0 HT 0-0	Valladolid
19/05/23 Spain La Liga	Cadiz	2-0 HT 0-0	Valladolid
16/09/22 Spain La Liga	Valladolid	0-1 HT 0-0	Cadiz
24/04/21 Spain La Liga	Valladolid	1-1 HT 1-0	Cadiz
29/12/20 Spain La Liga	Cadiz	0-0 HT 0-0	Valladolid

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
1	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Celta Fortuna	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	Granada	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
5	Leganes	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	CD Castellon	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
6	Sporting Gijon	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	FC Andorra	2	1	0	1	7	5	3
9	Almeria	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
10	Cordoba	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Burgos	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
12	Mallorca	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
12	Real Sociedad B	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
14	Eibar	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
15	Cadiz	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
16	Sabadell	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
17	Girona	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Oviedo	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
19	Eldense	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
20	Albacete	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
21	Valladolid	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
22	AD Ceuta FC	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cadiz	Valladolid
Racing Santander	1-4 L	1-4 L
Deportivo La Coruna	0-1 L	0-2 L
Las Palmas	1-2 L	1-2 L
FC Andorra	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Cadiz (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cadiz

LLLDLDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
15/08	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
31/05	Racing Santander Spain Segunda	0-3	1-4	3	0	L
24/05	Leganes Spain Segunda	1-0	3-0	4	9	W
15/05	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	1	9	D
08/05	Deportivo La Coruna Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/05	Cultural Leonesa Spain Segunda	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
27/04	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
19/04	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-1	0-3	5	7	L
12/04	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	6	6	L

Valladolid

DLWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
15/08	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/05	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
24/05	Deportivo La Coruna Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	6	7	L
16/05	Racing Santander Spain Segunda	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
09/05	Real Zaragoza Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
03/05	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
25/04	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
19/04	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
13/04	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	9	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cadiz vs Valladolid?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cadiz win (37%). Probabilities: Cadiz 37%, draw 32%, Valladolid 31%.

How many goals are expected in Cadiz vs Valladolid?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Cadiz 1.08 · Valladolid 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Valladolid?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.