Football · Spain Segunda · 31/08, 19:00
Prediction: Burgos vs Real Sociedad B
Team pages: Burgos · Real Sociedad B
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.98Total
Burgos1.3
Real Sociedad B0.67
1X2
Burgos
Draw
Real Sociedad B
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Burgos
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Real Sociedad B
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Burgos
3–3–0
Real Sociedad B
(6 last)
- Burgos2-0Real Sociedad B
- Real Sociedad B0-0Burgos
- Burgos1-0Real Sociedad B
- Burgos0-0Real Sociedad B
- Real Sociedad B0-1Burgos
- Real Sociedad B0-0Burgos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Burgos 1541 · Real Sociedad B 1464
| Burgos | Draw | Real Sociedad B | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Market | 52% | 28% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burgos (rating 1541 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Burgos: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Burgos | Real Sociedad B | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.4 | 2.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Burgos 3–3–0 Real Sociedad B
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 Europe Friendlies | Burgos | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Real Sociedad B |
| 03/05/26 Spain Segunda | Real Sociedad B | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Burgos |
| 25/10/25 Spain Segunda | Burgos | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Real Sociedad B |
| 13/03/22 Spain Segunda | Burgos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Real Sociedad B |
| 05/12/21 Spain Segunda | Real Sociedad B | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Burgos |
| 31/07/21 Europe Friendlies | Real Sociedad B | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Burgos |
Standings · Spain Segunda
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tenerife | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 1 | Las Palmas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Celta Fortuna | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Granada | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Leganes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | CD Castellon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | FC Andorra | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 9 | Almeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Burgos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Eibar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Cadiz | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Sabadell | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Girona | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Oviedo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 19 | Eldense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 20 | Albacete | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 | Valladolid | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Burgos | Real Sociedad B |
|---|---|---|
| Cultural Leonesa | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| CD Castellon | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Burgos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Cordoba Spain Segunda |
2-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | FC Andorra Spain Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Cultural Leonesa Spain Segunda |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Granada Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Almeria Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain Segunda |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | CD Castellon Spain Segunda |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 11/04 | Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Real Sociedad B
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Albacete Spain Segunda |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 14/08 | CD Castellon Spain Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Cultural Leonesa Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Albacete Spain Segunda |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Mirandes Spain Segunda |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 11/05 | Huesca Spain Segunda |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 11 | W |
| 03/05 | Burgos Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Valladolid Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Racing Santander Spain Segunda |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 10/04 | AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Burgos vs Real Sociedad B?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Burgos win (52%). Probabilities: Burgos 52%, draw 29%, Real Sociedad B 19%.
How many goals are expected in Burgos vs Real Sociedad B?
The model expects 1.98 goals (Burgos 1.3 · Real Sociedad B 0.67), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Burgos vs Real Sociedad B?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.