Prediction: Cobreloa vs La Serena
| Cobreloa | Draw | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 33% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cobreloa (rating 1527 vs 1442).
- H2H favours Cobreloa: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cobreloa | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 4.9 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cobreloa 4–0–2 La Serena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 Chile Cup | La Serena | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Cobreloa |
| 05/08/23 Chile Primera B | Cobreloa | 1-0 HT 1-0 | La Serena |
| 19/03/23 Chile Primera B | La Serena | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cobreloa |
| 04/08/19 Chile Primera B | Cobreloa | 3-1 HT 1-1 | La Serena |
| 09/03/19 Chile Primera B | La Serena | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Cobreloa |
| 07/10/18 Chile Primera B | La Serena | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cobreloa |
Standings · Chile Cup · Copa Chile 2026, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Antofagasta | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | La Serena | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 3 | Cobreloa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 4 | Cobresal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cobreloa | La Serena |
|---|---|---|
| Cobresal | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| CD Antofagasta | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cobreloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Cobresal Chile Cup |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/06 | La Serena Chile Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 20/06 | Cobresal Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 03/05 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
La Serena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | CD Antofagasta Chile Cup |
1-2 | 2-4 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 02/07 | Cobresal Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | Cobreloa Chile Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 24/06 | Cobresal Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 21/06 | CD Antofagasta Chile Cup |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Union La Calera Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Audax Italiano Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cobreloa vs La Serena?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cobreloa win (41%). Probabilities: Cobreloa 41%, draw 26%, La Serena 33%.
How many goals are expected in Cobreloa vs La Serena?
The model expects 3.5 goals (Cobreloa 1.84 · La Serena 1.66), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs La Serena?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.