Prediction: San Luis Quillota vs Universidad Catolica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.49Total
San Luis Quillota1.13
Universidad Catolica2.35
1X2
San Luis Quillota
Draw
Universidad Catolica
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
San Luis Quillota
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Universidad Catolica
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Luis Quillota
3–1–2
Universidad Catolica
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Luis Quillota 1517 · Universidad Catolica 1618
| San Luis Quillota | Draw | Universidad Catolica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Market | 16% | 20% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica (rating 1517 vs 1618).
- H2H favours San Luis Quillota: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Luis Quillota | Universidad Catolica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 2.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.3 | 3.6 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Luis Quillota 3–1–2 Universidad Catolica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 Chile Cup | Universidad Catolica | 4-2 HT 2-1 | San Luis Quillota |
| 04/04/25 Chile Cup | Universidad Catolica | 2-3 HT 1-1 | San Luis Quillota |
| 02/02/25 Chile Cup | San Luis Quillota | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Universidad Catolica |
| 23/09/18 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad Catolica | 2-1 HT 0-1 | San Luis Quillota |
| 30/04/18 Chile Liga de Primera | San Luis Quillota | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica |
| 05/11/17 Chile Apertura | Universidad Catolica | 0-2 HT 0-1 | San Luis Quillota |
Standings · Chile Cup · Copa Chile 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad Catolica | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Everton de Vina | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 |
| 3 | Deportes Copiapo | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 4 | San Luis Quillota | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Luis Quillota
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 28/06 | Universidad Catolica Chile Cup |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 25/05 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/05 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 6 | L |
Universidad Catolica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 01/07 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Cup |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 20/06 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Cobresal Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Luis Quillota vs Universidad Catolica?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica win (64%). Probabilities: San Luis Quillota 16%, draw 20%, Universidad Catolica 64%.
How many goals are expected in San Luis Quillota vs Universidad Catolica?
The model expects 3.49 goals (San Luis Quillota 1.13 · Universidad Catolica 2.35), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in San Luis Quillota vs Universidad Catolica?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.