Football · Ukraine Vyscha Liga · 02/08, 12:00

Prediction: Chernomorets Odessa vs Polissya Zhytomyr

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Chernomorets Odessa0.91

Polissya Zhytomyr2.19

1X2

13% 22% 65%

Chernomorets Odessa Draw Polissya Zhytomyr

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Chernomorets Odessa 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDDWW

Polissya Zhytomyr 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLLDL

Head-to-head

Chernomorets Odessa 3–1–2 Polissya Zhytomyr (6 last)

Polissya Zhytomyr3-1Chernomorets Odessa
Chernomorets Odessa1-4Polissya Zhytomyr
Polissya Zhytomyr1-4Chernomorets Odessa
Chernomorets Odessa1-0Polissya Zhytomyr
Polissya Zhytomyr1-1Chernomorets Odessa
Chernomorets Odessa2-1Polissya Zhytomyr

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chernomorets Odessa 1572 · Polissya Zhytomyr 1523

	Chernomorets Odessa	Draw	Polissya Zhytomyr
Our model	14%	21%	66%
Market	13%	22%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chernomorets Odessa (rating 1572 vs 1523).
H2H favours Chernomorets Odessa: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chernomorets Odessa	Polissya Zhytomyr
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	2.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.8	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.00

21.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +2’	7.00	4.00	1.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chernomorets Odessa 3–1–2 Polissya Zhytomyr

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Polissya Zhytomyr	3-1 HT 2-0	Chernomorets Odessa
31/08/24 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Chernomorets Odessa	1-4 HT 1-3	Polissya Zhytomyr
30/03/24 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Polissya Zhytomyr	1-4 HT 0-0	Chernomorets Odessa
16/09/23 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Chernomorets Odessa	1-0 HT 1-0	Polissya Zhytomyr
07/02/22 Club Friendly List	Polissya Zhytomyr	1-1 HT 0-0	Chernomorets Odessa
10/04/21 Ukraine Persha Liga	Chernomorets Odessa	2-1 HT 1-0	Polissya Zhytomyr

Standings · Ukraine Vyscha Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Zorya Lugansk	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Chernomorets Odessa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Dynamo Kiev	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Karpaty Lviv	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FC Kharkiv	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FC Livyi Bereh	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Obolon Kyiv	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Polissya Zhytomyr	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FC Kudrivka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bukovyna Chernivtsi	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	LNZ Lebedyn	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	FC Veres Rivne	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Kolos Kovalivka	1	0	1	0	2	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chernomorets Odessa

WWWWLWDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
23/05	Bukovyna Chernivtsi Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
16/05	FC Livyi Bereh Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
09/05	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
26/04	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
18/04	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
12/04	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/04	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
03/04	Metalurg Zaporizhya Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W

Polissya Zhytomyr

WLWWDWLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	FC Copenhagen UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	1-2	14	3	L
23/07	FC Copenhagen UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-1	3-3	2	4	D
14/07	Viktoria Plzen Club Friendly List	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
14/07	Shimizu S-Pulse World Club Friendlies	1-1	1-3	7	0	L
10/07	WSG Swarovski Tirol Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
09/07	Jagiellonia Bialystok Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
02/07	Worgl SV Europe Friendlies	5-0	11-0	4	2	W
02/07	Sabah Europe Friendlies	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
29/06	CS U Craiova Europe Friendlies	–	3-4	–	–	L
24/06	CSKA Sofia Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chernomorets Odessa vs Polissya Zhytomyr?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Polissya Zhytomyr win (65%). Probabilities: Chernomorets Odessa 13%, draw 22%, Polissya Zhytomyr 65%.

How many goals are expected in Chernomorets Odessa vs Polissya Zhytomyr?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Chernomorets Odessa 0.91 · Polissya Zhytomyr 2.19), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chernomorets Odessa vs Polissya Zhytomyr?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.