Football · Ukraine Vyscha Liga · 16/08, 14:30
Prediction: FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Team pages: FC Kharkiv · Shakhtar Donetsk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
FC Kharkiv0.94
Shakhtar Donetsk1.7
1X2
FC Kharkiv
Draw
Shakhtar Donetsk
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Kharkiv
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Shakhtar Donetsk
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Kharkiv
0–2–4
Shakhtar Donetsk
(6 last)
- Shakhtar Donetsk1-0FC Kharkiv
- FC Kharkiv1-1Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk2-0FC Kharkiv
- FC Kharkiv1-2Shakhtar Donetsk
- FC Kharkiv0-7Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk0-0FC Kharkiv
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Kharkiv 1453 · Shakhtar Donetsk 1588
| FC Kharkiv | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shakhtar Donetsk (rating 1453 vs 1588).
- H2H favours Shakhtar Donetsk: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Kharkiv | Shakhtar Donetsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.2 | 2.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 3.4 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kharkiv 0–2–4 Shakhtar Donetsk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Kharkiv |
| 13/09/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | FC Kharkiv | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 03/12/23 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Kharkiv |
| 29/07/23 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | FC Kharkiv | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 05/03/23 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | FC Kharkiv | 0-7 HT 0-4 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 23/08/22 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Kharkiv |
Standings · Ukraine Vyscha Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty Lviv | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 6 | Dynamo Kiev | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | FC Kharkiv | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | FC Livyi Bereh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | FC Kudrivka | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Veres Rivne | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | Obolon Kyiv | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | LNZ Lebedyn | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Chernomorets Odessa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Kharkiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Polissya Zhytomyr Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | FC Veres Rivne Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/07 | Schalke Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 21/07 | Fagiano Okayama Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/07 | Hradec Kralove Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/07 | FK Jablonec Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/07 | Wolfsberger AC Europe Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 09/07 | FC Salzburg Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 05/07 | Young Boys Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 01/07 | FK Qarabag Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 6-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
Shakhtar Donetsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Bursaspor Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 23/07 | HNK Gorica Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 21/07 | Slaven Belupo Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 19/07 | NK Rudes Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Obolon Kyiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | SC Poltava Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 07/05 | Crystal Palace UEFA Conference League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Shakhtar Donetsk win (55%). Probabilities: FC Kharkiv 20%, draw 25%, Shakhtar Donetsk 55%.
How many goals are expected in FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The model expects 2.64 goals (FC Kharkiv 0.94 · Shakhtar Donetsk 1.7), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.