Football · Ukraine Vyscha Liga · 05/09, 17:00
Prediction: Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Team pages: Karpaty Lviv · Shakhtar Donetsk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Karpaty Lviv0.87
Shakhtar Donetsk1.55
1X2
Karpaty Lviv
Draw
Shakhtar Donetsk
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Karpaty Lviv
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Shakhtar Donetsk
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Karpaty Lviv
0–2–4
Shakhtar Donetsk
(6 last)
- Shakhtar Donetsk3-0Karpaty Lviv
- Karpaty Lviv3-3Shakhtar Donetsk
- Karpaty Lviv0-0Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk5-2Karpaty Lviv
- Karpaty Lviv0-3Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk3-0Karpaty Lviv
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karpaty Lviv 1566 · Shakhtar Donetsk 1598
| Karpaty Lviv | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 28% | 52% |
| Market | 21% | 26% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Shakhtar Donetsk: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Karpaty Lviv | Shakhtar Donetsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.7 | 2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.7 | 1.9 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karpaty Lviv 0–2–4 Shakhtar Donetsk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Karpaty Lviv |
| 10/08/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Karpaty Lviv | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 11/03/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Karpaty Lviv | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 14/09/24 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 5-2 HT 4-1 | Karpaty Lviv |
| 02/11/19 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Karpaty Lviv | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 04/08/19 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Karpaty Lviv |
Standings · Ukraine Vyscha Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty Lviv | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Kharkiv | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Dynamo Kiev | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | FC Zorya Lugansk | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Chernomorets Odessa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | LNZ Lebedyn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Veres Rivne | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | FC Livyi Bereh | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Obolon Kyiv | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | FC Kudrivka | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Kolos Kovalivka | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Karpaty Lviv | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih | 4-1 W | 3-2 W |
| FC Zorya Lugansk | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FC Kharkiv | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Shakhtar Donetsk (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karpaty Lviv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | FC Livyi Bereh Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 10/08 | LNZ Lebedyn Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-1 | 4-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Zorya Lugansk Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | FC Veres Rivne Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | FC Kharkiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 08/05 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | LNZ Lebedyn Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | FC Rukh Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Shakhtar Donetsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Polissya Zhytomyr Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | FC Kharkiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Obolon Kyiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | SC Poltava Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Dynamo Kiev Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Kudrivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/04 | FC Zorya Lugansk Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Shakhtar Donetsk win (52%). Probabilities: Karpaty Lviv 20%, draw 27%, Shakhtar Donetsk 52%.
How many goals are expected in Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Karpaty Lviv 0.87 · Shakhtar Donetsk 1.55), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.