Football · China FA Cup · 21/07, 10:00
Prediction: Dalian Kewei vs Beijing Guoan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Dalian Kewei0.73
Beijing Guoan1.84
1X2
Dalian Kewei
Draw
Beijing Guoan
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dalian Kewei
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Beijing Guoan
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dalian Kewei 1540 · Beijing Guoan 1542
| Dalian Kewei | Draw | Beijing Guoan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 24% | 63% |
| Market | 14% | 22% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dalian Kewei | Beijing Guoan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.6 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.5 | 2.6 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dalian Kewei
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Beijing Institute China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Shanghai Segenda China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 08/07 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 27/06 | Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/06 | Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/06 | Liaoning Ironman China FA Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Changchun Xidu China Division 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 05/06 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 26/05 | Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
Beijing Guoan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Guangdong GZ-Power China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Henan China Super League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/05 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
3-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dalian Kewei vs Beijing Guoan?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Beijing Guoan win (63%). Probabilities: Dalian Kewei 14%, draw 23%, Beijing Guoan 63%.
How many goals are expected in Dalian Kewei vs Beijing Guoan?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Dalian Kewei 0.73 · Beijing Guoan 1.84), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Dalian Kewei vs Beijing Guoan?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.