Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

Team pages: FH Hafnarfjordur (W) · Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

FH Hafnarfjordur (W)2.53

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1.07

1X2

68% 19% 13%

FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Draw Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWLLD

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWWLD

Head-to-head

FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 3–1–2 Thor/KA Akureyri (W) (6 last)

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-1FH Hafnarfjordur (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)4-2FH Hafnarfjordur (W)
FH Hafnarfjordur (W)5-3Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-3FH Hafnarfjordur (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)0-3FH Hafnarfjordur (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-0FH Hafnarfjordur (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 1526 · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1528

	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	Draw	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Our model	68%	18%	13%
Market	68%	19%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FH Hafnarfjordur (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.6 / 2.2	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7.1	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.33▼	Pinn 1.36
X	4.50 → 4.75▲	Pinn 5.41 ★
2	5.50 → 7.00▲	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:28 +8’	1.40	4.50	5.50
02:57 +15’	1.33▼	4.75▲	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +37’	1.36	5.41	5.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 3–1–2 Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)
10/03/26 Iceland Cup Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	4-2 HT 3-1	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)
12/08/25 Iceland Premier League Women	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	5-3 HT 3-3	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
12/06/25 Iceland Cup Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)
03/05/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	0-3 HT 0-3	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)
31/08/24 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)

Standings · Iceland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Breidablik (W)	17	12	0	5	45	20	36
2	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	17	10	4	3	54	31	34
3	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	18	8	3	7	31	34	27
4	Stjarnan (W)	17	7	5	5	30	25	26
5	Throttur Reykjavik (W)	17	6	4	7	23	26	22
6	Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	17	6	4	7	24	29	22
7	Fram Reykjavik (W)	18	7	1	10	28	43	22
8	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	17	5	4	8	23	26	19
9	Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	17	5	2	10	25	37	17
10	Valur Reykjavik (W)	17	4	5	8	18	30	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Valur Reykjavik (W)	2-2 D	0-1 L
Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	0-1 L	3-0 W
Breidablik (W)	0-3 L	0-2 L
Fram Reykjavik (W)	6-4 W	2-0 W
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	2-2 D	2-1 W
Stjarnan (W)	7-3 W	2-3 L
Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	6-1 W	1-0 W
Throttur Reykjavik (W)	7-3 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FH Hafnarfjordur (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FH Hafnarfjordur (W)

WDWWWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	2-2	9	2	D
21/08	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
15/08	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
12/08	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	6-4	4	2	W
29/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
21/07	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	4-1	7-3	8	1	W
16/07	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	6-1	11	1	W
09/07	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	3-2	7-3	7	1	W
23/06	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
13/06	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	5-2	9	0	W

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

DWWLWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
21/08	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
14/08	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
07/08	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
29/07	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
19/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/07	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
09/07	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
22/06	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	2-0	8	1	W
13/06	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FH Hafnarfjordur (W) win (68%). Probabilities: FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 68%, draw 19%, Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 13%.

How many goals are expected in FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)?

The model expects 3.6 goals (FH Hafnarfjordur (W) 2.53 · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FH Hafnarfjordur (W) vs Thor/KA Akureyri (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.