Football · Poland II Liga · 21/08, 20:30

Prediction: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Team pages: Chojniczanka Chojnice · Stal Stalowa Wola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Chojniczanka Chojnice1.71

Stal Stalowa Wola1.5

1X2

41% 26% 32%

Chojniczanka Chojnice Draw Stal Stalowa Wola

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chojniczanka Chojnice 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLLLLW

Stal Stalowa Wola 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1–2–2 Stal Stalowa Wola (5 last)

Chojniczanka Chojnice3-3Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola2-3Chojniczanka Chojnice
Stal Stalowa Wola2-1Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice1-1Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola5-2Chojniczanka Chojnice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chojniczanka Chojnice 1491 · Stal Stalowa Wola 1517

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Draw	Stal Stalowa Wola
Our model	42%	25%	33%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Stal Stalowa Wola: 2-2-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Stal Stalowa Wola
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	2.6 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.30

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +8’	2.20	3.30	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chojniczanka Chojnice 1–2–2 Stal Stalowa Wola

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Poland II Liga	Chojniczanka Chojnice	3-3 HT 2-1	Stal Stalowa Wola
05/10/25 Poland II Liga	Stal Stalowa Wola	2-3 HT 1-1	Chojniczanka Chojnice
29/05/24 Poland II Liga	Stal Stalowa Wola	2-1 HT 0-0	Chojniczanka Chojnice
03/03/24 Poland II Liga	Chojniczanka Chojnice	1-1 HT 1-0	Stal Stalowa Wola
19/08/23 Poland II Liga	Stal Stalowa Wola	5-2 HT 2-0	Chojniczanka Chojnice

Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hutnik Krakow	4	3	1	0	10	2	10
2	Znicz Pruszków	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
3	Avia Swidnik	4	3	0	1	8	5	9
4	GKS Tychy 71	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	4	2	1	1	4	3	7
7	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	4	2	1	1	4	5	7
8	Slask Wroclaw II	4	2	0	2	9	6	6
9	Stal Stalowa Wola	4	2	0	2	8	5	6
10	Gornik Leczna	4	2	0	2	8	7	6
11	Lechia Zielona Góra	4	1	2	1	10	6	5
12	Olimpia Grudziadz	4	1	2	1	5	7	5
12	Sokol Kleczew	4	1	2	1	5	7	5
14	Podhale Nowy Targ	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
15	Legia Warsaw II	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
16	Chojniczanka Chojnice	4	1	0	3	3	9	3
17	Resovia Rzeszow	4	0	1	3	3	9	1
18	OKS Swit Skolwin	4	0	0	4	2	12	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Stal Stalowa Wola
Slask Wroclaw II	2-1 W	2-3 L
GKS Tychy 71	0-1 L	1-2 L
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	2-0 W	1-3 L
Zaglebie Sosnowiec	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Chojniczanka Chojnice (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chojniczanka Chojnice

WWWLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
09/08	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
05/08	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland Cup	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
02/08	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	7	8	L
26/07	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
07/07	Olimpia Elblag Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
02/07	Petrolul Ploiesti Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
30/05	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	2-0	2-0	0	2	W
22/05	Unia Skierniewice Poland II Liga	1-1	3-2	9	8	W
16/05	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland II Liga	3-0	3-1	8	4	W

Stal Stalowa Wola

DDWDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	1-0	4-0	3	1	W
08/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	6	1	L
05/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland Cup	1-1	2-3	8	3	L
31/07	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
25/07	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
30/05	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
15/05	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
08/05	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
30/04	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
24/04	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	10	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chojniczanka Chojnice win (41%). Probabilities: Chojniczanka Chojnice 41%, draw 26%, Stal Stalowa Wola 32%.

How many goals are expected in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Chojniczanka Chojnice 1.71 · Stal Stalowa Wola 1.5), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.