Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 28/08, 17:00

Prediction: Nevezis vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

Team pages: Nevezis · FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Nevezis2.77

FK Neptunas Klaipeda II0.87

1X2

77% 15% 9%

Nevezis Draw FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Nevezis 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWWWDW

FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Nevezis 0–1–0 FK Neptunas Klaipeda II (1 last)

FK Neptunas Klaipeda II0-0Nevezis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nevezis 1568 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 1492

	Nevezis	Draw	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II
Our model	76%	15%	8%
Market	77%	14%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nevezis (rating 1568 vs 1492).
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nevezis	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	2.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.6	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	5.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.50

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.98

2 (+2.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.18▼	Bet365 1.18
X	6.25 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50
2	9.00 → 10.00▲	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +3’	1.20	6.25	9.00
15:24 +6’	1.18▼	6.50▲	10.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nevezis 0–1–0 FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	0-0	Nevezis

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	17	12	4	1	38	13	40
2	Vilnius Football Academy	18	12	4	2	59	23	40
3	Suduva Marijampole II	18	11	3	4	40	22	36
4	FM Klaipedos	19	10	2	7	29	23	32
5	FK Sveikata	18	8	6	4	37	23	30
6	FK Sirvena	18	8	5	5	35	23	29
7	FKS Ukmerge	17	7	3	7	26	24	24
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	17	6	5	6	34	29	23
9	FK Panevezys II	17	6	5	6	37	35	23
10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	18	6	3	9	33	36	21
11	Banga Gargzdai II	18	5	4	9	26	25	19
12	FK Silute	18	5	4	9	24	39	19
13	Utenis Utena	19	5	4	10	22	43	19
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	18	3	2	13	23	63	11
15	DFK Dainava II	18	3	0	15	27	69	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nevezis	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II
Vilnius Football Academy	2-1 W	2-4 L
Utenis Utena	3-0 W	2-4 L
FK Sirvena	2-3 L	2-1 W
FK Viltis Vilnius	5-0 W	1-2 L
Suduva Marijampole II	1-1 D	2-3 L
FKS Ukmerge	2-1 W	3-2 W
Sirijus Klaipeda	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nevezis (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nevezis

DWDWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	3-2	3	2	W
14/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
07/08	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
26/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
19/06	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	1	W
12/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	2-3	5	7	L
05/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	5-0	8	2	W
30/05	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-1	11	4	D
22/05	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
15/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

FK Neptunas Klaipeda II

LWWWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-4	4	6	L
12/08	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-4	3	7	L
09/08	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	9	6	W
02/08	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-2	12	12	L
28/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-3	5	1	L
24/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-1	–	–	W
21/06	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
14/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	3-1	–	–	W
07/06	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
29/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nevezis vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nevezis win (77%). Probabilities: Nevezis 77%, draw 15%, FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 9%.

How many goals are expected in Nevezis vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda II?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Nevezis 2.77 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda II 0.87), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nevezis vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.