Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 28/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Panevezys II vs Banga Gargzdai II

Team pages: FK Panevezys II · Banga Gargzdai II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

FK Panevezys II1.95

Banga Gargzdai II1.59

1X2

46% 23% 31%

FK Panevezys II Draw Banga Gargzdai II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Panevezys II 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWDDDLLL

Banga Gargzdai II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLDWLL

Head-to-head

FK Panevezys II 4–2 Banga Gargzdai II (6 last)

Banga Gargzdai II1-2FK Panevezys II
FK Panevezys II2-0Banga Gargzdai II
Banga Gargzdai II1-2FK Panevezys II
FK Panevezys II4-2Banga Gargzdai II
Banga Gargzdai II3-2FK Panevezys II
FK Panevezys II1-6Banga Gargzdai II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Panevezys II 1459 · Banga Gargzdai II 1480

	FK Panevezys II	Draw	Banga Gargzdai II
Our model	46%	24%	31%
Market	46%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Panevezys II: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Panevezys II	Banga Gargzdai II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.5	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.9	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.5	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +4’	1.95	4.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Panevezys II 4–0–2 Banga Gargzdai II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Banga Gargzdai II	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Panevezys II
16/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Panevezys II	2-0 HT 1-0	Banga Gargzdai II
29/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Banga Gargzdai II	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Panevezys II
12/09/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Panevezys II	4-2 HT 2-1	Banga Gargzdai II
16/05/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Banga Gargzdai II	3-2 HT 1-1	FK Panevezys II
31/07/21 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Panevezys II	1-6 HT 1-3	Banga Gargzdai II

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	17	12	4	1	38	13	40
2	Vilnius Football Academy	18	12	4	2	59	23	40
3	Suduva Marijampole II	18	11	3	4	40	22	36
4	FM Klaipedos	19	10	2	7	29	23	32
5	FK Sveikata	18	8	6	4	37	23	30
6	FK Sirvena	18	8	5	5	35	23	29
7	FKS Ukmerge	17	7	3	7	26	24	24
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	17	6	5	6	34	29	23
9	FK Panevezys II	17	6	5	6	37	35	23
10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	18	6	3	9	33	36	21
11	Banga Gargzdai II	18	5	4	9	26	25	19
12	FK Silute	18	5	4	9	24	39	19
13	Utenis Utena	19	5	4	10	22	43	19
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	18	3	2	13	23	63	11
15	DFK Dainava II	18	3	0	15	27	69	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Panevezys II	Banga Gargzdai II
Nevezis	1-2 L	2-3 L
Vilnius Football Academy	1-4 L	1-2 L
Utenis Utena	2-2 D	4-0 W
FK Sirvena	2-2 D	0-0 D
FK Viltis Vilnius	6-0 W	4-0 W
Suduva Marijampole II	0-1 L	2-1 W
FKS Ukmerge	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sirijus Klaipeda	1-5 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Banga Gargzdai II (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Panevezys II

LDLWDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-5	7	2	L
07/08	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
31/07	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	1	L
30/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	3-3	4	10	D
22/06	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	2-2	8	3	D
19/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
14/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	6-0	7	4	W
10/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
31/05	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
23/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	1-5	11	5	L

Banga Gargzdai II

LDLWWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	2-3	2	2	L
14/08	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
05/08	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-0	3	3	W
31/07	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
03/07	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	4-0	5	3	W
22/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
12/06	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
05/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
31/05	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-3	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Panevezys II vs Banga Gargzdai II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Panevezys II win (46%). Probabilities: FK Panevezys II 46%, draw 23%, Banga Gargzdai II 31%.

How many goals are expected in FK Panevezys II vs Banga Gargzdai II?

The model expects 3.54 goals (FK Panevezys II 1.95 · Banga Gargzdai II 1.59), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Panevezys II vs Banga Gargzdai II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.