Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 26/08, 17:00

Prediction: Utenis Utena vs FM Klaipedos

Team pages: Utenis Utena · FM Klaipedos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Utenis Utena0.99

FM Klaipedos2.5

1X2

13% 18% 70%

Utenis Utena Draw FM Klaipedos

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Utenis Utena 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDDLWL

FM Klaipedos 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Utenis Utena 2–1–1 FM Klaipedos (4 last)

FM Klaipedos2-1Utenis Utena
FM Klaipedos0-3Utenis Utena
Utenis Utena4-2FM Klaipedos
FM Klaipedos1-1Utenis Utena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Utenis Utena 1433 · FM Klaipedos 1542

	Utenis Utena	Draw	FM Klaipedos
Our model	12%	18%	69%
Market	13%	17%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FM Klaipedos (rating 1433 vs 1542).
H2H favours Utenis Utena: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Utenis Utena	FM Klaipedos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 3.1	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3	1.3 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.25

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.82

2 (-1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +3’	7.00	5.25	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Utenis Utena 2–1–1 FM Klaipedos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	2-1 HT 1-1	Utenis Utena
20/08/22 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	0-3	Utenis Utena
24/10/21 Lithuania II Lyga	Utenis Utena	4-2	FM Klaipedos
20/06/21 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	1-1 HT 0-0	Utenis Utena

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	17	12	4	1	38	13	40
2	Vilnius Football Academy	18	12	4	2	59	23	40
3	Suduva Marijampole II	18	11	3	4	40	22	36
4	FM Klaipedos	18	10	2	6	29	22	32
5	FK Sveikata	18	8	6	4	37	23	30
6	FK Sirvena	18	8	5	5	35	23	29
7	FKS Ukmerge	17	7	3	7	26	24	24
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	17	6	5	6	34	29	23
9	FK Panevezys II	17	6	5	6	37	35	23
10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	18	6	3	9	33	36	21
11	Banga Gargzdai II	18	5	4	9	26	25	19
12	FK Silute	18	5	4	9	24	39	19
13	Utenis Utena	18	4	4	10	21	43	16
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	18	3	2	13	23	63	11
15	DFK Dainava II	18	3	0	15	27	69	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Utenis Utena	FM Klaipedos
FK Silute	0-2 L	1-1 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	4-2 W	3-0 W
Banga Gargzdai II	0-4 L	1-2 L
FK Sirvena	0-3 L	1-4 L
FK Viltis Vilnius	4-2 W	2-0 W
Suduva Marijampole II	0-5 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FM Klaipedos (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Utenis Utena

LWLLLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	4-2	3	7	W
05/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
02/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
22/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	2-2	2	3	D
19/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
12/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-4	1-6	4	5	L
30/05	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
22/05	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	4-2	–	–	W
14/05	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-5	2	2	L

FM Klaipedos

LWDWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-4	5	3	L
16/08	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
05/08	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
01/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
03/07	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
27/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/06	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
05/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
25/05	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Utenis Utena vs FM Klaipedos?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FM Klaipedos win (70%). Probabilities: Utenis Utena 13%, draw 18%, FM Klaipedos 70%.

How many goals are expected in Utenis Utena vs FM Klaipedos?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Utenis Utena 0.99 · FM Klaipedos 2.5), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Utenis Utena vs FM Klaipedos?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.