Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Crusaders vs Larne FC

Team pages: Crusaders · Larne FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Crusaders0.78

Larne FC2.24

1X2

12% 18% 71%

Crusaders Draw Larne FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Crusaders 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWLWL

Larne FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Crusaders 1–1–4 Larne FC (6 last)

Crusaders2-4Larne FC
Crusaders0-1Larne FC
Larne FC4-0Crusaders
Crusaders2-2Larne FC
Larne FC0-1Crusaders
Crusaders1-3Larne FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crusaders 1472 · Larne FC 1594

	Crusaders	Draw	Larne FC
Our model	11%	20%	70%
Market	12%	17%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Larne FC (rating 1472 vs 1594).
H2H favours Larne FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crusaders	Larne FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	2.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

17.50

X5.50

21.28

Line ⓘ

Over 32.01

Under 31.79

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.28 → 1.28	Pinn 1.32 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +10’	7.50	5.50	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +125’	7.50	5.42	1.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crusaders 1–1–4 Larne FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	2-4 HT 1-2	Larne FC
20/12/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	0-1 HT 0-1	Larne FC
16/09/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	4-0 HT 1-0	Crusaders
05/04/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	2-2 HT 0-1	Larne FC
08/02/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Crusaders
07/01/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	1-3 HT 1-1	Larne FC

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	9	7	1	1	19	8	22
2	Linfield	9	7	1	1	12	6	22
3	Larne FC	6	5	1	0	12	3	16
4	Glentoran	10	5	1	4	15	10	16
5	Crusaders	10	5	0	5	15	18	15
6	Carrick Rangers	10	4	1	5	15	15	13
7	Dungannon Swifts	9	4	1	4	9	10	13
8	Ballymena Utd	9	3	3	3	13	11	12
9	Cliftonville	10	4	0	6	12	12	12
10	Limavady United	9	3	0	6	8	14	9
11	Bangor FC	9	1	2	6	8	19	5
12	Portadown	10	1	1	8	8	20	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crusaders	Larne FC
Carrick Rangers	0-4 L	5-2 W
Bangor FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Linfield	0-1 L	2-0 W
Dungannon Swifts	3-0 W	8-0 W
Coleraine	1-4 L	0-0 D
Glentoran	2-1 W	2-1 W
Portadown	3-2 W	2-0 W
Cliftonville	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Larne FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crusaders

LWWWLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-4	8	3	L
26/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
19/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/09	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	3-0	7	6	W
12/09	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
05/09	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-3	1-4	1	2	L
29/08	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
22/08	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	3-2	3	3	W
15/08	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
07/08	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	0	1	L

Larne FC

LWDWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	3-2	5-2	4	4	W
15/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
12/09	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/09	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	3-0	8-0	5	2	W
17/04	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
11/04	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
07/04	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	1-4	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crusaders vs Larne FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Larne FC win (71%). Probabilities: Crusaders 12%, draw 18%, Larne FC 71%.

How many goals are expected in Crusaders vs Larne FC?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Crusaders 0.78 · Larne FC 2.24), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Crusaders vs Larne FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.