Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers

Team pages: Dungannon Swifts · Carrick Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Dungannon Swifts1.73

Carrick Rangers1.61

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Dungannon Swifts Draw Carrick Rangers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dungannon Swifts 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLLDL

Carrick Rangers 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLDLLW

Head-to-head

Dungannon Swifts 3–1–2 Carrick Rangers (6 last)

Dungannon Swifts3-1Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers5-1Dungannon Swifts
Carrick Rangers3-3Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts0-2Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers1-3Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts3-1Carrick Rangers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dungannon Swifts 1482 · Carrick Rangers 1486

	Dungannon Swifts	Draw	Carrick Rangers
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dungannon Swifts: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dungannon Swifts	Carrick Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.31
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.81 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +8’	2.30	3.60	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:03 +343’	2.31	3.60	2.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dungannon Swifts 3–1–2 Carrick Rangers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Dungannon Swifts	3-1 HT 1-1	Carrick Rangers
24/01/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Carrick Rangers	5-1 HT 3-0	Dungannon Swifts
13/12/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Carrick Rangers	3-3 HT 1-1	Dungannon Swifts
23/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Dungannon Swifts	0-2 HT 0-2	Carrick Rangers
01/03/25 Northern Ireland Cup	Carrick Rangers	1-3 HT 1-0	Dungannon Swifts
15/02/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Dungannon Swifts	3-1 HT 3-0	Carrick Rangers

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	9	7	1	1	19	8	22
2	Linfield	9	7	1	1	12	6	22
3	Larne FC	6	5	1	0	12	3	16
4	Glentoran	10	5	1	4	15	10	16
5	Crusaders	10	5	0	5	15	18	15
6	Carrick Rangers	10	4	1	5	15	15	13
7	Dungannon Swifts	9	4	1	4	9	10	13
8	Ballymena Utd	9	3	3	3	13	11	12
9	Cliftonville	10	4	0	6	12	12	12
10	Limavady United	9	3	0	6	8	14	9
11	Bangor FC	9	1	2	6	8	19	5
12	Portadown	10	1	1	8	8	20	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dungannon Swifts	Carrick Rangers
Glentoran	0-2 L	0-2 L
Ballymena Utd	1-1 D	1-1 D
Crusaders	0-3 L	4-0 W
Linfield	0-1 L	0-1 L
Limavady United	2-0 W	2-1 W
Cliftonville	2-0 W	1-3 L
Bangor FC	2-0 W	4-0 W
Portadown	1-0 W	1-0 W
Coleraine	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dungannon Swifts

LLWWWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
19/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
15/09	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-3	5	6	L
12/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
05/09	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
29/08	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/08	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
08/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
12/05	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-3	4	4	L

Carrick Rangers

WWLWLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/09	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
19/09	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	2-3	2-5	11	4	L
15/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
12/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-2	1-3	8	5	L
05/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
29/08	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
22/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
15/08	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dungannon Swifts win (40%). Probabilities: Dungannon Swifts 40%, draw 25%, Carrick Rangers 35%.

How many goals are expected in Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Dungannon Swifts 1.73 · Carrick Rangers 1.61), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.