Football · Belgium First Division A · 11/10, 19:15
Prediction: KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense
Team pages: KV Mechelen · Sint-Truidense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
KV Mechelen1.35
Sint-Truidense1.63
1X2
KV Mechelen
Draw
Sint-Truidense
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
KV Mechelen
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Sint-Truidense
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
KV Mechelen
0–1–5
Sint-Truidense
(6 last)
- Sint-Truidense3-0KV Mechelen
- KV Mechelen1-4Sint-Truidense
- Sint-Truidense1-0KV Mechelen
- KV Mechelen1-3Sint-Truidense
- KV Mechelen1-1Sint-Truidense
- Sint-Truidense2-1KV Mechelen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KV Mechelen 1397 · Sint-Truidense 1500
| KV Mechelen | Draw | Sint-Truidense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sint-Truidense (rating 1397 vs 1500).
- H2H favours Sint-Truidense: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KV Mechelen | Sint-Truidense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.1 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/20/80% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.2 | 2.7 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KV Mechelen 0–1–5 Sint-Truidense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Belgium First Division A | Sint-Truidense | 3-0 HT 2-0 | KV Mechelen |
| 26/04/26 Belgium First Division A | KV Mechelen | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Sint-Truidense |
| 21/12/25 Belgium First Division A | Sint-Truidense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | KV Mechelen |
| 04/10/25 Belgium First Division A | KV Mechelen | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Sint-Truidense |
| 21/02/25 Belgium First Division A | KV Mechelen | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sint-Truidense |
| 08/11/24 Belgium First Division A | Sint-Truidense | 2-1 HT 1-0 | KV Mechelen |
Standings · Belgium First Division A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Saint Gilloise | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Gent | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Zulte-Waregem | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liege | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 8 | Lommel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| 9 | Westerlo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 10 |
| 10 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
| 11 | Genk | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 9 |
| 12 | Sint-Truidense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 7 |
| 14 | OH Leuven | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
| 15 | RAAL La Louviere | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 4 |
| 16 | KV Kortrijk | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 3 |
| 17 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 3 |
| 18 | KV Mechelen | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Sint-Truidense |
|---|---|---|
| Lommel | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Anderlecht | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Westerlo | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| RAAL La Louviere | 2-2 D | 4-0 W |
| Gent | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sint-Truidense (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KV Mechelen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 11/09 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Charleroi Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Gent Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Club Brugge Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
Sint-Truidense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | SK Beveren Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Antwerp Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Gent Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sint-Truidense win (43%). Probabilities: KV Mechelen 31%, draw 27%, Sint-Truidense 43%.
How many goals are expected in KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense?
The model expects 2.98 goals (KV Mechelen 1.35 · Sint-Truidense 1.63), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.