Football · Belgium First Division A · 11/10, 16:00

Prediction: Union Saint Gilloise vs OH Leuven

Team pages: Union Saint Gilloise · OH Leuven

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Union Saint Gilloise2.66

OH Leuven0.94

1X2

73% 17% 10%

Union Saint Gilloise Draw OH Leuven

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Saint Gilloise 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWWWWW

OH Leuven 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

Union Saint Gilloise 4–2–0 OH Leuven (6 last)

OH Leuven0-0Union Saint Gilloise
Union Saint Gilloise5-0OH Leuven
Union Saint Gilloise1-0OH Leuven
OH Leuven1-1Union Saint Gilloise
OH Leuven0-2Union Saint Gilloise
Union Saint Gilloise5-1OH Leuven

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Saint Gilloise 1621 · OH Leuven 1448

	Union Saint Gilloise	Draw	OH Leuven
Our model	73%	17%	10%
Market	73%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Saint Gilloise (rating 1621 vs 1448).
H2H favours Union Saint Gilloise: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Saint Gilloise	OH Leuven
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.8	2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Pinn 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 6.18 ★
2	9.00 → 9.00	Pinn 9.77

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:55 +3’	1.25	5.50	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +536’	1.25	6.18	9.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Saint Gilloise 4–2–0 OH Leuven

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Saint Gilloise
03/08/25 Belgium First Division A	Union Saint Gilloise	5-0 HT 2-0	OH Leuven
19/01/25 Belgium First Division A	Union Saint Gilloise	1-0 HT 1-0	OH Leuven
24/11/24 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	1-1 HT 1-1	Union Saint Gilloise
02/03/24 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	0-2 HT 0-1	Union Saint Gilloise
12/08/23 Belgium First Division A	Union Saint Gilloise	5-1 HT 2-1	OH Leuven

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Saint Gilloise	7	6	1	0	21	3	19
2	Gent	7	6	1	0	13	4	19
3	Club Brugge	7	6	0	1	15	3	18
4	Charleroi	7	6	0	1	15	7	18
5	Anderlecht	7	4	1	2	7	5	13
6	Zulte-Waregem	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
7	Standard Liege	7	3	2	2	13	12	11
8	Westerlo	7	3	1	3	15	16	10
9	SK Beveren	7	3	0	4	7	11	9
10	Genk	7	2	3	2	13	12	9
11	Sint-Truidense	7	2	2	3	12	12	8
12	Lommel	7	2	2	3	6	8	8
13	Antwerp	7	2	1	4	11	15	7
14	RAAL La Louviere	7	1	1	5	7	14	4
15	OH Leuven	7	1	1	5	5	13	4
16	KV Kortrijk	7	1	0	6	2	15	3
17	Cercle Brugge	7	0	3	4	8	14	3
18	KV Mechelen	7	0	3	4	5	14	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Saint Gilloise	OH Leuven
Antwerp	2-0 W	3-0 W
Charleroi	3-2 W	1-3 L
Gent	0-0 D	0-1 L
Club Brugge	0-5 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Saint Gilloise

LDWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
12/09	Lommel Belgium First Division A	2-0	5-0	6	2	W
05/09	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	2-2	3-2	7	3	W
02/09	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
30/08	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
15/08	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
08/08	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	1-1	5-1	5	3	W
24/05	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	4-0	5-1	4	5	W
21/05	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
17/05	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-3	0-5	10	3	L

OH Leuven

WDLLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
12/09	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
06/09	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
03/09	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
29/08	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
15/08	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
09/08	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
23/05	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
19/05	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	6	0	D
15/05	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Saint Gilloise vs OH Leuven?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Saint Gilloise win (73%). Probabilities: Union Saint Gilloise 73%, draw 17%, OH Leuven 10%.

How many goals are expected in Union Saint Gilloise vs OH Leuven?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Union Saint Gilloise 2.66 · OH Leuven 0.94), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Saint Gilloise vs OH Leuven?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.