Football · Belgium First Division A · 11/10, 13:30

Prediction: Standard Liege vs Charleroi

Team pages: Standard Liege · Charleroi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Standard Liege1.25

Charleroi1.45

1X2

31% 28% 40%

Standard Liege Draw Charleroi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Standard Liege 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDDWWWLL

Charleroi 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Standard Liege 2–4 Charleroi (6 last)

Standard Liege0-2Charleroi
Charleroi1-2Standard Liege
Charleroi2-0Standard Liege
Standard Liege3-1Charleroi
Standard Liege0-1Charleroi
Charleroi1-0Standard Liege

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Standard Liege 1497 · Charleroi 1546

	Standard Liege	Draw	Charleroi
Our model	31%	28%	40%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charleroi (rating 1497 vs 1546).
H2H favours Charleroi: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Standard Liege	Charleroi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	2.8 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.25

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.94
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.46 ★
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +5’	2.90	3.25	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:30 +678’	2.94	3.46	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Standard Liege 2–0–4 Charleroi

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Belgium First Division A	Standard Liege	0-2 HT 0-0	Charleroi
18/04/26 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	1-2 HT 0-0	Standard Liege
18/01/26 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	2-0 HT 2-0	Standard Liege
31/10/25 Belgium First Division A	Standard Liege	3-1 HT 1-1	Charleroi
04/05/25 Belgium First Division A	Standard Liege	0-1 HT 0-0	Charleroi
06/04/25 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	1-0 HT 1-0	Standard Liege

Standings · Belgium First Division A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Saint Gilloise	7	6	1	0	21	3	19
2	Gent	7	6	1	0	13	4	19
3	Club Brugge	7	6	0	1	15	3	18
4	Charleroi	7	6	0	1	15	7	18
5	Anderlecht	7	4	1	2	7	5	13
6	Zulte-Waregem	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
7	Standard Liege	7	3	2	2	13	12	11
8	Westerlo	7	3	1	3	15	16	10
9	SK Beveren	7	3	0	4	7	11	9
10	Genk	7	2	3	2	13	12	9
11	Sint-Truidense	7	2	2	3	12	12	8
12	Lommel	7	2	2	3	6	8	8
13	Antwerp	7	2	1	4	11	15	7
14	RAAL La Louviere	7	1	1	5	7	14	4
15	OH Leuven	7	1	1	5	5	13	4
16	KV Kortrijk	7	1	0	6	2	15	3
17	Cercle Brugge	7	0	3	4	8	14	3
18	KV Mechelen	7	0	3	4	5	14	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Standard Liege	Charleroi
Westerlo	2-4 L	0-1 L
OH Leuven	2-1 W	3-1 W
KV Mechelen	3-3 D	2-0 W
Cercle Brugge	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Charleroi (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Standard Liege

DWLDDWWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Gent Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
12/09	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-1	2-4	7	0	L
05/09	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	13	3	W
29/08	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
21/08	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
16/08	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	2-1	3-3	2	2	D
08/08	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
23/05	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-2	6	8	L
19/05	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
16/05	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Charleroi

LDWWWWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	2-1	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
05/09	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	2-2	2-3	5	3	L
29/08	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
22/08	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
16/08	Lommel Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
09/08	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
23/05	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	9	8	W
19/05	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-1	14	0	D
16/05	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Charleroi win (40%). Probabilities: Standard Liege 31%, draw 28%, Charleroi 40%.

How many goals are expected in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Standard Liege 1.25 · Charleroi 1.45), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.