Football · Austria Bundesliga · 01/08, 17:00

Prediction: WSG Swarovski Tirol vs SK Sturm Graz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

WSG Swarovski Tirol1.28

SK Sturm Graz1.88

1X2

25% 25% 50%

WSG Swarovski Tirol Draw SK Sturm Graz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

WSG Swarovski Tirol 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLDLLW

SK Sturm Graz 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLDWWWW

Head-to-head

WSG Swarovski Tirol 2–4 SK Sturm Graz (6 last)

WSG Swarovski Tirol1-0SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz1-3WSG Swarovski Tirol
WSG Swarovski Tirol0-3SK Sturm Graz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · WSG Swarovski Tirol 1500 · SK Sturm Graz 1553

	WSG Swarovski Tirol	Draw	SK Sturm Graz
Our model	25%	25%	51%
Market	24%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Sturm Graz (rating 1500 vs 1553).
H2H favours SK Sturm Graz: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	WSG Swarovski Tirol	SK Sturm Graz
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.7	2.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/22/44%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	4.1 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.60

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 1.45 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.89

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +1’	3.75	3.60	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:36 +2’	3.90	3.75	1.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · WSG Swarovski Tirol 2–0–4 SK Sturm Graz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Austria Bundesliga	WSG Swarovski Tirol	1-0 HT 0-0	SK Sturm Graz
03/12/25 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-3 HT 1-0	WSG Swarovski Tirol
07/12/24 Austria Bundesliga	WSG Swarovski Tirol	0-3 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz
31/08/24 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	4-2 HT 1-2	WSG Swarovski Tirol
25/02/24 Austria Bundesliga	WSG Swarovski Tirol	0-2 HT 0-2	SK Sturm Graz
01/10/23 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-0 HT 1-0	WSG Swarovski Tirol

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Austria Lustenau	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Salzburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Austria Vienna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Grazer AK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	LASK Linz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SCR Altach	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rapid Vienna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Sturm Graz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SV Ried	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hartberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wolfsberger AC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	WSG Swarovski Tirol	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

WSG Swarovski Tirol

WLDLWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	SC Wieselburg Austria Cup	2-0	6-0	4	0	W
17/07	Hertha Berlin Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
10/07	Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	3	0	L
04/07	Gornik Zabrze Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
27/06	FK Qarabag Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-4	3	0	L
19/06	FC Zirl Club Friendly List	–	16-1	–	–	W
16/05	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
09/05	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
25/04	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

SK Sturm Graz

DWWWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Seekirchen Austria Cup	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
21/07	Hearts UEFA Champions League Qualifying	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
15/07	Pogon Szczecin Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/07	SC Kalsdorf Club Friendly List	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
03/07	FC Kosice Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-2	10	1	D
30/06	LNZ Lebedyn Europe Friendlies	1-4	2-6	1	3	L
26/06	NS Mura Europe Friendlies	2-0	5-0	14	1	W
17/05	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
10/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	3-1	4-2	7	6	W
03/05	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	9	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in WSG Swarovski Tirol vs SK Sturm Graz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SK Sturm Graz win (50%). Probabilities: WSG Swarovski Tirol 25%, draw 25%, SK Sturm Graz 50%.

How many goals are expected in WSG Swarovski Tirol vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model expects 3.17 goals (WSG Swarovski Tirol 1.28 · SK Sturm Graz 1.88), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in WSG Swarovski Tirol vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.