Football · Austria Bundesliga · 10/10, 17:00

Prediction: Grazer AK vs FC Salzburg

Team pages: Grazer AK · FC Salzburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Grazer AK0.94

FC Salzburg2.11

1X2

15% 21% 64%

Grazer AK Draw FC Salzburg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Grazer AK 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLDWD

FC Salzburg 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWWWDW

Head-to-head

Grazer AK 1–2–3 FC Salzburg (6 last)

Grazer AK1-1FC Salzburg
FC Salzburg5-0Grazer AK
FC Salzburg0-0Grazer AK
Grazer AK2-3FC Salzburg
FC Salzburg3-4Grazer AK
Grazer AK0-6FC Salzburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grazer AK 1560 · FC Salzburg 1590

	Grazer AK	Draw	FC Salzburg
Our model	15%	22%	63%
Market	15%	21%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Salzburg: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grazer AK	FC Salzburg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	4.4 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.50

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.81 ★
2	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.49

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:51 +3’	6.00	4.50	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +589’	5.66	4.81	1.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Grazer AK 1–2–3 FC Salzburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Salzburg
09/08/25 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	5-0 HT 1-0	Grazer AK
02/11/24 Austria Bundesliga	FC Salzburg	0-0 HT 0-0	Grazer AK
02/08/24 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	2-3 HT 2-3	FC Salzburg
04/02/23 Europe Friendlies	FC Salzburg	3-4 HT 0-2	Grazer AK
03/04/19 Austria Cup	Grazer AK	0-6 HT 0-4	FC Salzburg

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	7	6	0	1	21	7	18
2	FC Salzburg	7	5	2	0	18	4	17
3	LASK Linz	7	5	1	1	19	7	16
4	SK Sturm Graz	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
5	WSG Swarovski Tirol	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
6	Hartberg	7	2	2	3	10	13	8
7	SV Ried	7	2	2	3	11	12	8
8	Grazer AK	7	2	2	3	6	16	8
9	Austria Lustenau	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
10	FK Austria Vienna	7	2	1	4	7	13	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
12	SCR Altach	7	1	0	6	5	12	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grazer AK	FC Salzburg
FK Austria Vienna	2-2 D	4-1 W
Wolfsberger AC	0-0 D	1-1 D
SV Ried	0-1 L	1-1 D
Rapid Vienna	0-8 L	5-1 W
LASK Linz	0-3 L	1-2 L
WSG Swarovski Tirol	4-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Salzburg (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grazer AK

WDWLWLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-2	2	8	D
12/09	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
29/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	11	7	D
21/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-5	0-8	1	4	L
08/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
31/07	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
16/05	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/05	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-1	2-2	6	6	D
02/05	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	2-0	4-0	4	3	W

FC Salzburg

DLLWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	3-0	3	3	W
11/09	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
02/09	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	3-0	5-1	2	1	W
30/08	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	3-0	4-1	7	2	W
16/08	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
09/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
01/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	19	0	W
17/05	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-3	13	2	L
10/05	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
03/05	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grazer AK vs FC Salzburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Salzburg win (64%). Probabilities: Grazer AK 15%, draw 21%, FC Salzburg 64%.

How many goals are expected in Grazer AK vs FC Salzburg?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Grazer AK 0.94 · FC Salzburg 2.11), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs FC Salzburg?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.