Football · Austria Bundesliga · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: SK Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau

Team pages: SK Sturm Graz · Austria Lustenau

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
SK Sturm Graz1.86
Austria Lustenau0.52
1X2
70% 20% 10%
SK Sturm Graz Draw Austria Lustenau
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
SK Sturm Graz 7-1-2 (W-D-L)
WWWWWDLWLW
Austria Lustenau 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
DLWWDLWDLW
Head-to-head
SK Sturm Graz 4–0 Austria Lustenau (4 last)
  • SK Sturm Graz2-0Austria Lustenau
  • Austria Lustenau0-1SK Sturm Graz
  • Austria Lustenau0-2SK Sturm Graz
  • SK Sturm Graz2-0Austria Lustenau
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Sturm Graz 1562 · Austria Lustenau 1531
SK Sturm GrazDrawAustria Lustenau
Our model69%23%9%
Market71%18%11%
Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours SK Sturm Graz: 4-0-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

SK Sturm GrazAustria Lustenau
Goals for / against (FT)1.8 / 0.50.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.40.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/60/10%22/67/11%
Corners (HT / FT)1.6 / 6.11.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.1 / 0.13 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Sturm Graz 400 Austria Lustenau

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DateHomeScoreAway
25/11/23
Austria Bundesliga
SK Sturm Graz2-0
HT 0-0
Austria Lustenau
19/08/23
Austria Bundesliga
Austria Lustenau0-1
HT 0-1
SK Sturm Graz
04/03/23
Austria Bundesliga
Austria Lustenau0-2
HT 0-0
SK Sturm Graz
18/09/22
Austria Bundesliga
SK Sturm Graz2-0
HT 1-0
Austria Lustenau

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 LASK Linz 3300 919
2 SK Sturm Graz 3210 417
3 Rapid Vienna 2200 316
4 Austria Lustenau 3111 444
5 FC Salzburg 2110 214
6 Wolfsberger AC 3111 534
7 SCR Altach 3102 333
8 Grazer AK 2101 243
9 WSG Swarovski Tirol 2011 241
10 SV Ried 3012 371
11 Hartberg 2002 030
12 FK Austria Vienna 2002 050

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Sturm Graz

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
15/08 SCR Altach
Austria Bundesliga
0-0 1-0 122 W
11/08 Fenerbahce
UEFA Champions League Qualifying
0-0 0-1 74 L
08/08 Hartberg
Austria Bundesliga
0-0 2-0 93 W
05/08 Fenerbahce
UEFA Champions League Qualifying
0-2 0-2 23 L
01/08 WSG Swarovski Tirol
Austria Bundesliga
1-1 1-1 65 D
28/07 Hearts
UEFA Champions League Qualifying
0-0 2-0 21 W
24/07 Seekirchen
Austria Cup
1-0 3-0 75 W
21/07 Hearts
UEFA Champions League Qualifying
1-0 4-0 43 W
15/07 Pogon Szczecin
Europe Friendlies
0-0 1-0 W
08/07 SC Kalsdorf
Club Friendly List
2-1 4-1 W

Austria Lustenau

DLWWDLWDLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
15/08 Wolfsberger AC
Austria Bundesliga
2-1 2-1 63 W
08/08 Grazer AK
Austria Bundesliga
0-1 1-2 63 L
02/08 SV Ried
Austria Bundesliga
1-1 1-1 44 D
25/07 Kremser SC
Austria Cup
0-0 1-0 54 W
16/07 Nurnberg II
Europe Friendlies
0-0 0-1 42 L
15/07 SW Bregenz
Europe Friendlies
1-0 1-1 36 D
10/07 Aarau
Europe Friendlies
0-0 1-0 31 W
04/07 St Gallen
Club Friendly List
1-0 W
04/07 FC Vaduz
Club Friendly List
0-0 0-1 L
01/07 Young Boys
Europe Friendlies
0-0 0-0 31 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Sturm Graz win (70%). Probabilities: SK Sturm Graz 70%, draw 20%, Austria Lustenau 10%.

How many goals are expected in SK Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?

The model expects 2.38 goals (SK Sturm Graz 1.86 · Austria Lustenau 0.52), with a 61% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.