Football · Russia Premier League · 12/09, 15:15

Prediction: Zenit St Petersburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow

Team pages: Zenit St Petersburg · Lokomotiv Moscow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Zenit St Petersburg1.71

Lokomotiv Moscow0.49

1X2

67% 24% 9%

Zenit St Petersburg Draw Lokomotiv Moscow

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Zenit St Petersburg 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Lokomotiv Moscow 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Zenit St Petersburg 1–3–2 Lokomotiv Moscow (6 last)

Lokomotiv Moscow0-0Zenit St Petersburg
Zenit St Petersburg2-0Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow1-1Zenit St Petersburg
Zenit St Petersburg1-1Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow3-1Zenit St Petersburg
Zenit St Petersburg1-2Lokomotiv Moscow

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zenit St Petersburg (rating 1580 vs 1451).
H2H favours Lokomotiv Moscow: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zenit St Petersburg	Lokomotiv Moscow
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	– / 6.3	– / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.94

Under 31.86

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:57

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.41 → 1.41	Pinn 1.41
X	4.76 → 4.76	Pinn 4.76
2	6.58 → 6.58	Pinn 6.58

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:14 +43’	1.41	4.76	6.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zenit St Petersburg 1–3–2 Lokomotiv Moscow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Russia Premier League	Lokomotiv Moscow	0-0 HT 0-0	Zenit St Petersburg
01/11/25 Russia Premier League	Zenit St Petersburg	2-0 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Moscow
05/04/25 Russia Premier League	Lokomotiv Moscow	1-1 HT 0-0	Zenit St Petersburg
27/10/24 Russia Premier League	Zenit St Petersburg	1-1 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Moscow
03/12/23 Russia Premier League	Lokomotiv Moscow	3-1 HT 1-1	Zenit St Petersburg
24/09/23 Russia Premier League	Zenit St Petersburg	1-2 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Moscow

Standings · Russia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Krasnodar	7	6	1	0	13	6	19
2	CSKA Moscow	7	4	3	0	11	7	15
3	Spartak Moscow	6	4	1	1	11	5	13
4	Zenit St Petersburg	7	4	0	3	14	6	12
5	Dynamo Makhachkala	7	4	0	3	12	10	12
6	Baltika Kaliningrad	6	3	1	2	10	6	10
7	Dinamo Moscow	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
8	Rubin Kazan	6	2	3	1	9	8	9
9	FC Orenburg	7	1	5	1	7	9	8
10	Rostov	7	2	2	3	10	11	8
11	Krylia Sovetov	7	1	4	2	10	12	7
12	FC Akhmat Grozny	6	1	3	2	9	8	6
13	Rodina Moscow	7	1	1	5	8	19	4
14	Akron Tolyatti	7	0	4	3	8	17	4
15	Lokomotiv Moscow	6	0	3	3	5	8	3
16	Fakel Voronezh	7	0	2	5	4	10	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zenit St Petersburg	Lokomotiv Moscow
CSKA Moscow	1-2 L	2-3 L
Dinamo Moscow	3-0 W	0-1 L
FC Orenburg	3-0 W	1-1 D
Akron Tolyatti	5-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zenit St Petersburg (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zenit St Petersburg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	CSKA Moscow Russia Premier League	0-1	1-2	10	7	L
29/08	Fakel Voronezh Russia Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/08	Spartak Moscow Russia Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	9	L
16/08	Dinamo Moscow Russia Premier League	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
09/08	Rodina Moscow Russia Premier League	1-0	1-2	9	1	L
02/08	FC Orenburg Russia Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
25/07	Akron Tolyatti Russia Premier League	3-0	5-0	5	5	W
17/05	Rostov Russia Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
10/05	PFC Sochi Russia Premier League	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
02/05	CSKA Moscow Russia Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	5	W

Lokomotiv Moscow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Dinamo Moscow Russia Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
22/08	CSKA Moscow Russia Premier League	1-1	2-3	1	3	L
14/08	FC Orenburg Russia Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
08/08	Akron Tolyatti Russia Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/08	Dynamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League	1-0	1-2	9	3	L
26/07	FC Akhmat Grozny Russia Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
17/05	CSKA Moscow Russia Premier League	0-1	1-3	5	1	L
10/05	Baltika Kaliningrad Russia Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
01/05	Dinamo Moscow Russia Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
25/04	Krylia Sovetov Russia Premier League	0-1	0-2	8	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zenit St Petersburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zenit St Petersburg win (67%). Probabilities: Zenit St Petersburg 67%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Moscow 9%.

How many goals are expected in Zenit St Petersburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Zenit St Petersburg 1.71 · Lokomotiv Moscow 0.49), with a 63% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Zenit St Petersburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.