Football · England League 1 · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Luton vs Notts County
Team pages: Luton · Notts County
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Luton1.88
Notts County1
1X2
Luton
Draw
Notts County
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Luton
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Notts County
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Luton
2–3–1
Notts County
(6 last)
- Luton2-0Notts County
- Notts County0-0Luton
- Luton1-1Notts County
- Luton2-1Notts County
- Notts County0-0Luton
- Luton0-2Notts County
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luton 1584 · Notts County 1497
| Luton | Draw | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luton (rating 1584 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Luton: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Luton | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.1 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luton 2–3–1 Notts County
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/18 Club Friendly List | Luton | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Notts County |
| 05/05/18 England League 2 | Notts County | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Luton |
| 09/12/17 England League 2 | Luton | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Notts County |
| 22/04/17 England League 2 | Luton | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Notts County |
| 29/10/16 England League 2 | Notts County | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Luton |
| 30/01/16 England League 2 | Luton | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Notts County |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Stockport | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Bradford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Luton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Cambridge Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Mansfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Sheff Wed | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Bromley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Oxford Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Blackpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Leicester | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Notts County | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Stevenage | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Wycombe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | Reading | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Wigan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Leyton Orient | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | AFC Wimbledon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Reading England League 1 |
1-3 | 4-3 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Gillingham England EFL Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Go Ahead Eagles Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Al Kholood World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Barnet UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Hitchin UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Bolton England League 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 21/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
Notts County
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Leicester England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Burnley England EFL Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Walsall UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | Nottm Forest Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Randers FC Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Viborg Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Alfreton Town UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Salford City England League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luton vs Notts County?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Luton win (57%). Probabilities: Luton 57%, draw 24%, Notts County 19%.
How many goals are expected in Luton vs Notts County?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Luton 1.88 · Notts County 1), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Luton vs Notts County?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.