Football · England League 1 · 02/09, 20:45
Prediction: Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon
Team pages: Burton Albion · AFC Wimbledon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.03Total
Burton Albion1.2
AFC Wimbledon0.82
1X2
Burton Albion
Draw
AFC Wimbledon
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Burton Albion
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
AFC Wimbledon
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Burton Albion
3–3–0
AFC Wimbledon
(6 last)
- Burton Albion1-0AFC Wimbledon
- AFC Wimbledon0-1Burton Albion
- Burton Albion1-1AFC Wimbledon
- AFC Wimbledon1-1Burton Albion
- AFC Wimbledon0-1Burton Albion
- Burton Albion1-1AFC Wimbledon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Burton Albion 1492 · AFC Wimbledon 1401
| Burton Albion | Draw | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 32% | 24% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burton Albion (rating 1492 vs 1401).
- H2H favours Burton Albion: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Burton Albion | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.5 | 1.5 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Burton Albion 3–3–0 AFC Wimbledon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 25/10/25 England League 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Burton Albion |
| 22/01/22 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 1-1 HT 0-0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 02/10/21 England League 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Burton Albion |
| 09/03/21 England League 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Burton Albion |
| 24/10/20 England League 1 | Burton Albion | 1-1 HT 0-0 | AFC Wimbledon |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackpool | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Sheff Wed | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Stockport | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bradford | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Notts County | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Oxford Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Barnsley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Cambridge Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Plymouth | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Bromley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 14 | Mansfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Leyton Orient | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Peterborough | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 18 | Stevenage | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 20 | Leicester | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 21 | Wycombe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 22 | Reading | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 24 | Wigan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Burton Albion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Leicester England League 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Exeter England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 06/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Blackpool England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 21/03 | Bradford England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
AFC Wimbledon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Reading England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Plymouth England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/04 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 06/04 | Luton England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | Lincoln City England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Burton Albion win (45%). Probabilities: Burton Albion 45%, draw 30%, AFC Wimbledon 25%.
How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
The model expects 2.03 goals (Burton Albion 1.2 · AFC Wimbledon 0.82), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.