Football · England League 1 · 02/09, 20:45
Prediction: Luton vs Stockport
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Luton1.72
Stockport1.39
1X2
Luton
Draw
Stockport
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Luton
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Stockport
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Luton
2–1–0
Stockport
(3 last)
- Stockport1-3Luton
- Luton1-1Stockport
- Stockport0-3Luton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luton 1605 · Stockport 1576
| Luton | Draw | Stockport | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Luton: 2-1-0.
- High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Luton | Stockport | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.3 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.5 | 3.8 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luton 2–1–0 Stockport
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 England EFL Trophy | Stockport | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Luton |
| 21/03/26 England League 1 | Luton | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Stockport |
| 08/11/25 England League 1 | Stockport | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Luton |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blackpool | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Sheff Wed | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Stockport | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bradford | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Notts County | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Oxford Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Barnsley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Cambridge Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Plymouth | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Bromley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 14 | Mansfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Leyton Orient | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Peterborough | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 18 | Stevenage | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 20 | Leicester | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 21 | Wycombe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 22 | Reading | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 24 | Wigan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Luton | Stockport |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 3-2 W | 1-4 L |
| Barnsley | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Mansfield | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Peterborough | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Notts County England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 15/08 | Reading England League 1 |
1-3 | 4-3 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Bolton England League 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 21/04 | Rotherham England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 15/04 | Northampton England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 06/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/04 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Stockport England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Stockport
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Wycombe England League 1 |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 22/08 | Blackpool England League 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Plymouth England League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Bolton England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Stevenage England League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 28/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 21/04 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luton vs Stockport?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Luton win (44%). Probabilities: Luton 44%, draw 26%, Stockport 30%.
How many goals are expected in Luton vs Stockport?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Luton 1.72 · Stockport 1.39), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Luton vs Stockport?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.