Football · England League 1 · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons
Team pages: Stevenage · Milton Keynes Dons
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Stevenage1.58
Milton Keynes Dons1.29
1X2
Stevenage
Draw
Milton Keynes Dons
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Stevenage
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Milton Keynes Dons
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stevenage
1–3–2
Milton Keynes Dons
(6 last)
- Stevenage2-1Milton Keynes Dons
- Stevenage1-1Milton Keynes Dons
- Milton Keynes Dons2-2Stevenage
- Stevenage2-3Milton Keynes Dons
- Stevenage0-3Milton Keynes Dons
- Milton Keynes Dons1-1Stevenage
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stevenage 1550 · Milton Keynes Dons 1489
| Stevenage | Draw | Milton Keynes Dons | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stevenage (rating 1550 vs 1489).
- H2H favours Milton Keynes Dons: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stevenage | Milton Keynes Dons | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.7 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stevenage 1–3–2 Milton Keynes Dons
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/25 UK Friendlies | Stevenage | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 16/11/21 England FA Cup | Stevenage | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 06/11/21 England FA Cup | Milton Keynes Dons | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Stevenage |
| 06/10/20 England EFL Trophy | Stevenage | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 03/09/19 England EFL Trophy | Stevenage | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 16/03/19 England League 2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Stevenage |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 20 |
| 2 | Stockport | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Huddersfield | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 19 |
| 5 | Cambridge Utd | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 19 |
| 6 | Sheff Wed | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 18 |
| 7 | Reading | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 15 |
| 8 | Oxford Utd | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 15 |
| 9 | Leyton Orient | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 13 |
| 11 | Wycombe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 13 | Mansfield | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| 14 | Leicester | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| 15 | AFC Wimbledon | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 12 |
| 16 | Luton | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 11 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 9 |
| 19 | Peterborough | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 9 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 8 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 8 |
| 22 | Bromley | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 8 |
| 23 | Notts County | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 7 |
| 24 | Wigan | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stevenage | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Luton | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Peterborough | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Oxford Utd | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stevenage
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Plymouth England League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/09 | Luton England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Peterborough England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
Milton Keynes Dons
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Blackpool England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Luton England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Reading England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/09 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Peterborough England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Wycombe England League 1 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 02/09 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Leicester England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stevenage win (43%). Probabilities: Stevenage 43%, draw 27%, Milton Keynes Dons 30%.
How many goals are expected in Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Stevenage 1.58 · Milton Keynes Dons 1.29), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.