Football · England League 1 · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Barnsley vs Oxford Utd

Team pages: Barnsley · Oxford Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Barnsley1.58

Oxford Utd1.76

1X2

34% 26% 41%

Barnsley Draw Oxford Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Barnsley 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDLLLL

Oxford Utd 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDWDWD

Head-to-head

Barnsley 4–1–1 Oxford Utd (6 last)

Oxford Utd0-1Barnsley
Barnsley1-3Oxford Utd
Barnsley2-0Oxford Utd
Oxford Utd1-2Barnsley
Oxford Utd2-2Barnsley
Barnsley4-0Oxford Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barnsley 1425 · Oxford Utd 1555

	Barnsley	Draw	Oxford Utd
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oxford Utd (rating 1425 vs 1555).
H2H favours Barnsley: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barnsley	Oxford Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.9	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +5’	2.75	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barnsley 4–1–1 Oxford Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/01/24 England League 1	Oxford Utd	0-1 HT 0-1	Barnsley
19/08/23 England League 1	Barnsley	1-3 HT 0-1	Oxford Utd
22/04/23 England League 1	Barnsley	2-0 HT 1-0	Oxford Utd
01/02/23 England League 1	Oxford Utd	1-2 HT 0-1	Barnsley
29/01/19 England League 1	Oxford Utd	2-2 HT 1-0	Barnsley
04/08/18 England League 1	Barnsley	4-0 HT 2-0	Oxford Utd

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huddersfield	12	7	4	1	24	11	25
2	Stockport	12	7	2	3	24	12	23
3	Bradford	12	6	4	2	10	5	22
4	Plymouth	13	7	1	5	21	19	22
5	Reading	12	6	3	3	25	13	21
6	Cambridge Utd	12	5	5	2	20	17	20
7	Oxford Utd	10	5	4	1	18	10	19
8	Sheff Wed	11	5	3	3	20	12	18
9	Mansfield	11	5	3	3	20	16	18
10	Luton	11	5	2	4	21	19	17
11	Burton Albion	13	4	5	4	18	19	17
12	Stevenage	11	4	3	4	15	11	15
13	Leicester	11	4	3	4	17	17	15
14	Wycombe	12	3	6	3	19	23	15
15	Leyton Orient	12	4	2	6	16	14	14
16	AFC Wimbledon	12	3	4	5	8	19	13
17	Doncaster	11	3	3	5	12	13	12
18	Milton Keynes Dons	11	2	6	3	12	18	12
19	Notts County	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
20	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	16	20	11
21	Peterborough	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
22	Bromley	11	2	3	6	10	26	9
23	Barnsley	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
24	Wigan	11	2	1	8	8	17	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barnsley	Oxford Utd
Cambridge Utd	1-2 L	1-1 D
Leicester	1-1 D	4-0 W
Stevenage	1-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Oxford Utd (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barnsley

DWWLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Reading England League 1	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
20/10	Luton England League 1	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
17/10	Cambridge Utd England League 1	1-0	1-2	11	7	L
10/10	Stockport England League 1	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
19/09	Leicester England League 1	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
12/09	Plymouth England League 1	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
05/09	Stevenage England League 1	1-1	1-5	8	3	L
02/09	Blackpool England League 1	0-0	2-1	13	7	W
29/08	Leyton Orient England League 1	1-0	3-1	10	8	W
22/08	Doncaster England League 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Oxford Utd

DWLWWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Bradford England League 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
20/10	Wigan England League 1	1-0	2-1	9	7	W
15/10	Mansfield England League 1	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
10/10	Notts County England League 1	1-0	2-1	4	9	W
19/09	Cambridge Utd England League 1	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/09	Burton Albion England League 1	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
05/09	Leicester England League 1	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
01/09	Huddersfield England League 1	0-0	1-3	0	4	L
22/08	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Milton Keynes Dons England League 1	1-2	2-2	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barnsley vs Oxford Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Oxford Utd win (41%). Probabilities: Barnsley 34%, draw 26%, Oxford Utd 41%.

How many goals are expected in Barnsley vs Oxford Utd?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Barnsley 1.58 · Oxford Utd 1.76), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Barnsley vs Oxford Utd?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.