Football · England League 1 · 31/10, 16:00
Prediction: Mansfield vs Notts County
Team pages: Mansfield · Notts County
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Mansfield1.78
Notts County1.17
1X2
Mansfield
Draw
Notts County
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Mansfield
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Notts County
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mansfield
4–1–1
Notts County
(6 last)
- Mansfield1-0Notts County
- Notts County1-4Mansfield
- Notts County1-0Mansfield
- Mansfield2-0Notts County
- Notts County1-1Mansfield
- Notts County1-2Mansfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mansfield 1513 · Notts County 1509
| Mansfield | Draw | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Mansfield: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mansfield | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.2 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mansfield 4–1–1 Notts County
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/24 England League 2 | Mansfield | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Notts County |
| 14/10/23 England League 2 | Notts County | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Mansfield |
| 16/02/19 England League 2 | Notts County | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mansfield |
| 08/12/18 England League 2 | Mansfield | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Notts County |
| 17/03/18 England League 2 | Notts County | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Mansfield |
| 24/10/17 England EFL Trophy | Notts County | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Mansfield |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Stockport | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 21 |
| 6 | Cambridge Utd | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 20 |
| 7 | Oxford Utd | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 19 |
| 8 | Sheff Wed | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 18 |
| 9 | Mansfield | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 18 |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 17 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 19 | 17 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 15 |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 15 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 23 | 15 |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 14 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 13 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 12 |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 11 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 10 |
| 22 | Bromley | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 9 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mansfield | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford Utd | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Burton Albion | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Huddersfield | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Bradford | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Reading | 0-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Luton | 5-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mansfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Blackpool England League 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 20/10 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/10 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Bromley England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/09 | Reading England League 1 |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | Luton England League 1 |
3-0 | 5-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Peterborough England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Notts County
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Stockport England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 20/10 | Sheff Wed England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Wycombe England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 19/09 | Reading England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Bradford England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 05/09 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Luton England League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mansfield vs Notts County?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mansfield win (51%). Probabilities: Mansfield 51%, draw 25%, Notts County 24%.
How many goals are expected in Mansfield vs Notts County?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Mansfield 1.78 · Notts County 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Mansfield vs Notts County?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.