Football · England League 1 · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: Luton vs Leicester

Team pages: Luton · Leicester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Luton1.81

Leicester1.55

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Luton Draw Leicester

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Luton 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLLWLW

Leicester 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWDLWW

Head-to-head

Luton 0–2 Leicester (2 last)

Luton0-4Leicester
Luton0-1Leicester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Luton 1512 · Leicester 1510

	Luton	Draw	Leicester
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Leicester: 2-0-0.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Luton	Leicester
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.1	2.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.23
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.07 ★
2	3.10 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +2’	2.05	3.60	3.10
00:59 +9’	2.15▲	3.60	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:14 +40’	2.09	3.63	3.20
22:14 +42’	2.23▲	4.07▲	2.77▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Luton 0–0–2 Leicester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/19 England EFL Cup	Luton	0-4 HT 0-2	Leicester
26/07/17 Elite Club Friendlies	Luton	0-1 HT 0-0	Leicester

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bradford	10	6	2	2	10	5	20
2	Stockport	10	6	1	3	21	11	19
3	Huddersfield	10	5	4	1	18	9	19
4	Plymouth	11	6	1	4	18	14	19
5	Cambridge Utd	10	5	4	1	16	12	19
6	Sheff Wed	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
7	Reading	10	4	3	3	22	12	15
8	Oxford Utd	8	4	3	1	16	9	15
9	Leyton Orient	10	4	2	4	15	11	14
10	Burton Albion	11	3	4	4	16	18	13
11	Wycombe	10	3	4	3	16	20	13
12	Stevenage	9	3	3	3	12	10	12
13	Mansfield	9	3	3	3	13	15	12
14	Leicester	9	3	3	3	12	15	12
15	AFC Wimbledon	10	3	3	4	7	15	12
16	Luton	9	3	2	4	17	17	11
17	Doncaster	9	2	3	4	10	11	9
18	Milton Keynes Dons	9	1	6	2	11	16	9
19	Peterborough	10	2	3	5	9	16	9
20	Blackpool	9	2	2	5	13	16	8
21	Barnsley	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
22	Bromley	9	2	2	5	9	21	8
23	Notts County	9	1	4	4	8	13	7
24	Wigan	9	2	1	6	6	13	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Luton	Leicester
Barnsley	2-1 W	1-1 D
Milton Keynes Dons	1-2 L	0-0 D
Stockport	2-0 W	4-3 W
Notts County	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Luton (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Luton

WDLWDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Barnsley England League 1	2-0	2-1	7	3	W
17/10	Milton Keynes Dons England League 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
10/10	Wycombe England League 1	2-0	4-1	6	2	W
19/09	Bradford England League 1	0-1	0-1	14	7	L
10/09	Stevenage England League 1	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
05/09	Leyton Orient England League 1	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
02/09	Stockport England League 1	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
30/08	Mansfield England League 1	0-3	2-5	7	6	L
22/08	Notts County England League 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Reading England League 1	1-3	4-3	2	3	W

Leicester

DLDWLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Bromley England League 1	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
17/10	Doncaster England League 1	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
10/10	Peterborough England League 1	0-3	1-3	8	1	L
19/09	Barnsley England League 1	1-0	1-1	12	9	D
12/09	Stockport England League 1	2-1	4-3	1	3	W
05/09	Oxford Utd England League 1	0-1	0-4	10	2	L
01/09	Plymouth England League 1	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/08	Milton Keynes Dons England League 1	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
22/08	Burton Albion England League 1	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
15/08	Notts County England League 1	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Luton vs Leicester?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Luton win (43%). Probabilities: Luton 43%, draw 25%, Leicester 32%.

How many goals are expected in Luton vs Leicester?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Luton 1.81 · Leicester 1.55), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Luton vs Leicester?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.