Football · Argentina Cup · 17/07, 23:45
Prediction: San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
San Lorenzo1.04
Deportivo Riestra1.04
1X2
San Lorenzo
Draw
Deportivo Riestra
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
San Lorenzo
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Riestra
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Lorenzo
1–2–1
Deportivo Riestra
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Lorenzo 1489 · Deportivo Riestra 1454
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Deportivo Riestra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 33% | 34% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Lorenzo | Deportivo Riestra | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.4 | 2.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Lorenzo 1–2–1 Deportivo Riestra
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Deportivo Riestra | 1-1 HT 1-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 31/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Riestra |
| 20/04/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Deportivo Riestra | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 12/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Deportivo Riestra | 1-0 HT 1-0 | San Lorenzo |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 21/05 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 29/04 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
Deportivo Riestra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Palestino Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/05 | Torque Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 06/05 | Gremio Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 30/04 | Torque Copa Sudamericana |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 24/04 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 20/04 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 15/04 | Gremio Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 09/04 | Palestino Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Lorenzo win (34%). Probabilities: San Lorenzo 34%, draw 31%, Deportivo Riestra 34%.
How many goals are expected in San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
The model expects 2.07 goals (San Lorenzo 1.04 · Deportivo Riestra 1.04), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.